Charged: Analyst sees Tesla Q4 deliveries just above expectations

TipRanks

Tue, Dec 24, 2024, 8:05 AM 4 min read

From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.

Q4 DELIVERIES: Barclays expects Tesla to report Q4 deliveries of 515,000 units, up 6% year-over-year and just above the consensus estimate of 511,000. A beat could keep the stock’s narrative momentum strong, but the focus on Tesla’s fundamentals is limited overall, the firm tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes a slight near-term volume miss “would likely do little to dampen” Tesla’s autonomous vehicle and artificial intelligence push, which it says has recently come into greater focus ahead of the planned “Unsupervised FSD” launch in 2025. Conversely, a slight beat on Q4 is likely immaterial to the majority of the current Tesla bull case, the firm adds. It keeps an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a $270 price target.

NOT AS POSITIVE: Barclays also said it believes the post-election rally in shares of Tesla reflects a “sharp disconnect” between the stock and the company’s fundamentals. Technicals and options are playing an outsized role in the rally, the firm tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Tesla shares are now best comped to crypto. There are little incremental positives to Tesla’s fundamentals from the election, but Elon Musk’s premium is now elevated, contends the firm. The last six weeks “serve as a reminder that Tesla remains a narrative king within the market, with fundamentals cast aside,” it adds.

While 2025 consensus earnings estimates are up slightly in the past six weeks, Tesla’s multiple has increased to a “frothy” 145-times 2025 numbers, up from 80-times immediately pre-election, Barclays points out. It calls Trump’s “not as positive as you’d think” for Tesla’s fundamentals. The firm keeps an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a $270 price target.

AV DEPLOYMENT: Tesla is in early talks with the authorities in the city of Austin, Texas, about its autonomous vehicle technology, Bloomberg’s Kara Carlson reports. A Tesla employee has been in touch with the city’s autonomous vehicle task force since at least May to establish safety expectations for the vehicles, the report says, citing emails acquired by public records requests.

Click here to check out Tesla’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.

SOLAR INDUSTRY: Roth MKM notes that the American Active Anode Material Producers has filed anti-dumping and countervailing duty petitions against imports of active anode material from China with alleged average dumping margins from 828%-921%, adding that the firm believes this case could have “a wide range of impacts” as the petition covers active anode material regardless of whether it is imported independently, as part of a compound, or in a battery.

Roth, which believes the anode typically represents about 10%-15% of the cost of a battery, says a potential added tariff cost could be “disruptive to the industry” and a negative for suppliers that source anode material from China, directly or indirectly. Some names that the firm says could be impacted include Fluence Energy (FLNC), Stem (STEM), Enphase (ENPH), SolarEdge (SEDG), Energy Vault (NRGV), Clearway Energy (CWEN), Enlight (ENLT), Ormat (ORA), Sunnova (NOVA) and Sunrun (RUN).

BUY SUNRUN: TD Cowen initiated coverage of Sunrun with a Buy rating and $21 price target. The company is positioned to drive contracted subscriber value growth, supported by higher battery attachment and investment tax credit levels along with fixed cost absorption, through its scale and “leading” residential solar financier market share, the firm tells investors in a research note. TD Cowen says Sunrun will raise non-recourse debt against contracted subscriber value, providing confidence its 2025 cash generation targets are achievable.

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