Challenges abound if Binance seeks haven in Hong Kong amid US crackdown, analysts say

Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, might be in for an uphill battle if it was to seek shelter in Hong Kong in the face of a crackdown in the US, as the Asian financial hub lays out new licensing requirements this month for operators.

While establishing a legitimate foothold in Hong Kong could be beneficial to Binance, the firm may be deterred by the range of operational adjustments it must make to get licensed in the city, while charges brought by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week could create additional challenges, analysts said.

"Binance would be keen on establishing a meaningful presence in any market with a clear regulatory framework for crypto, and this is only accelerated by the pressure they're facing in the US," said Carlton Lai, head of blockchain and cryptocurrency research at Daiwa Capital Markets. "If Hong Kong's regime goes well, I would be surprised if Binance does not look into getting a [virtual asset service provider] licence."

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But an application "definitely won't be easy in the near term" for Binance, Lai said, noting that the SEC's lawsuit "could be a problem".

Crypto firms, including those with Chinese roots such as OKX and Huobi, are jockeying for a piece of the Hong Kong market, which recently rolled out new rules requiring centralised crypto exchanges to seek a licence to sell and market to the city's retail investors.

In contrast, Binance, which also started in China, has not publicly expressed interest in seeking a licence in the city despite CEO Zhao Changpeng's recent efforts to talk up Hong Kong's new regulatory regime for crypto and China's support for the Web3 sector.

"We welcome more regulatory clarity for the industry and we are reviewing the rules carefully and considering our options to best encourage adoption of cryptocurrencies, to support Hong Kong becoming a virtual asset hub whilst prioritising protecting our users," a Binance spokeswoman said earlier this week in response to a Post inquiry.

"We regularly review and update our compliance policies and procedures to ensure that we comply with the laws, regulations and compliance requirements of each jurisdiction."

The company declined to comment on whether it would apply for a Hong Kong virtual asset licence.