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We came across a bullish thesis on Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) on Cluseau Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CBNA. Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)'s share was trading at $26.63 as of 27th May. CBNA’s trailing P/E was 7.72 according to Yahoo Finance.
An aerial shot of a regional bank with its numerous branches situated in a city.
Chain Bridge Bank (CBNA) presents a compelling asymmetric opportunity as a niche bank deeply embedded in the Republican political fundraising ecosystem, with zero-cost deposits from PACs and affiliated entities. The stock is poised to benefit from passive inflows tied to imminent Russell 2000 inclusion, which could create technical upside given its low float and illiquidity. Fundamentally, CBNA operates a high-spread model, placing political cash into short-duration Treasurys, earning strong net interest margins as long as Fed Funds remain elevated. However, its earnings power is highly rate-sensitive—modeled EPS drops from $4.08 with no rate cuts to $2.40 with six cuts—making Federal Reserve policy a major driver.
While the bank saw $167 million in net deposit outflows post-April 15, likely due to PAC disbursements and tax-related withdrawals, these may reverse in Q3 as the election cycle intensifies. The Fitzgerald family retains voting control and significant ownership, suggesting insider alignment and limiting the likelihood of reckless dilution. At ~$23, the stock trades near tangible book value, offering a valuation floor, and could attract M&A interest if it remains undervalued. Risks include Trump-related idiosyncratic outcomes, customer concentration, and a steep rate-cut cycle, but the Q3 election ramp-up and forced Russell index buying provide a powerful near-term catalyst.
With limited institutional coverage and low analyst scrutiny, CBNA may be mispriced relative to its embedded earnings power and strategic optionality. A disciplined accumulation around $25 offers a high reward-to-risk setup, with the possibility of multiple expansion or a premium takeout in a favorable political cycle.
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 6 hedge fund portfolios held CBNA at the end of the first quarter which was 2 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CBNA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CBNA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.