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Healthcare plan provider Centene Corporation CNC is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 4, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 49 cents per share on revenues of $38.96 billion.
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The fourth-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 8.9%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 1.3%.
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For 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centene’s revenues is pegged at $161.41 billion, implying a rise of 4.8% year over year. The consensus mark for 2024 EPS is pegged at $6.81, implying an increase of 2%, year over year.
Centenebeat the earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 7.1%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Centene Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Centene Corporation price-eps-surprise | Centene Corporation Quote
Q4 Earnings Whispers for Centene
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
CNC has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping Centene’s Q4 Results?
Centene's fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from enhanced contributions from its Commercial business. The positives are expected to have been amplified by the launch of new programs across different states and growth in memberships. However, a decline in service revenues and rising medical costs are likely to have partially offset the positives.
Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for the company’s total commercial memberships indicate a more than 14% year-over-year increase, primarily due to growth in the commercial marketplace. Both the consensus estimate and our model estimate for Medicare PDP memberships signal nearly 47% growth from the year-ago quarter.
As such, the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for total membership growth is pegged at 3.9%. This is expected to have been partially offset by a decline in Medicaid and Medicare memberships. Both the consensus estimate and our model estimate for the company’s total Medicaid memberships indicate a more than 10% decline from a year ago. This is likely to have affected the premium growth level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects the company’s premium growth at about 1% year over year, while our model forecasts a 0.7% increase, both trailing behind the growth seen in earlier quarters of 2024.