CEE MARKETS-Crown hits 12-week low as rate-hike view shifts

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By Jason Hovet and Pawel Florkiewicz BUDAPEST, June 14 (Reuters) - The Czech crown hit a 12-week low on Wednesday, leading central European currencies lower, as the unit continued a slide seen over the past week amid fading rate-hike prospects while focus turns to possible policy easing this year. The crown, drifting further off from a nearly 15-year high hit in late-April, was down 0.24% at 23.86 versus the euro at 0824 GMT, paring its gains for the year to 1.25% as a high-yield rally since early-2023 appeared to be running out of steam. Czech central banker Jan Kubicek told Reuters on Monday the bank did not need to hike rates further with the outlook for easing inflation, supported by lower wage growth, falling household spending and a fiscal savings programme. Markets are pricing in up to 75 basis points in cuts in the Czech National Bank's 7% repo rate by the end of 2023, with a recent spate of benign data lowering the chances of another rate rise this month after a knife-edge vote for steady rates in May. "There were some regional crosses traded last week and that got us a bit higher (in the EUR/CZK rate), then there was a break of 23.800 where we held a couple of times, and I thinks some market participants are getting ready for some cuts in Czech rates (later this year)," a trader said. "I think there might be a slight change in the narrative of just buying (crowns) and getting carry." Kicking off a global tide of monetary tightening in 2021 to arrest a once-in-a-generation surge in prices, some of central Europe's central banks are shifting their focus towards paring back some of the tightening that took borrowing costs to multi-decade highs. Hungary's central bank is likely to cut its key one-day deposit rate by another 100 basis points at its monthly meeting next Tuesday, while the Polish central bank has also flagged it might lower borrowing costs if inflation keeps falling. The Polish zloty gained 0.15% to 4.4755 per euro in morning trade, though economists say it was likely to remain on an easing path after strong gains over the past months that saw central Europe's most liquid unit gain 5% for the year. "Currently, the Polish currency is subject to increased volatility, often moving against the rhythm of the markets in this part of Europe, or historical correlations with the euro/dollar," economists at Bank Millennium said. "In our opinion, the rate of appreciation of the zloty in the last month was too strong as for the incoming information, but the range of EUR/PLN downward movement was intensified, among others, by technical factors, i.e. breaking successive levels of resistance." CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1024 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previou Daily Change s bid close change in 2023 EURCZK Czech EURHUF Hungary 0 0 EURPLN Polish EURRON Romanian EURRSD Serbian 0 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previou Daily Change s close change in 2023 .PX Prague 1321.86 1316.98 +0.37% +10.00 00 % .BUX Budapest 49975.2 49866.7 +0.22% +14.12 9 6 % .WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 2057.75 2024.98 +1.62% +14.83 > % .BETI Buchares 12055.8 12006.2 +0.41% +3.36% t 0 4 Spread Daily vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT= 2-year s CZ5YT= 5-year s CZ10YT s Poland PL2YT= 2-year s PL5YT= 5-year s PL10YT s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ******************************************** ****************** (Reporting by Paweł Florkiewicz and Jason Hovet; Writing by Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)