In This Article:
It's been a mediocre week for Ceconomy AG (ETR:CEC) shareholders, with the stock dropping 16% to €2.66 in the week since its latest yearly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.16, some 61% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €22b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Ceconomy
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ceconomy from seven analysts is for revenues of €22.9b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 2.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 144% to €0.38. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €22.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.41 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €3.13, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Ceconomy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €3.50 and the most bearish at €2.70 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Ceconomy is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ceconomy's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 2.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Ceconomy is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.