Shares of Carnival Corporation & plc CCL have rallied 42.4% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s 29.2% growth. Over the same timeframe, the stock has outperformed the S&P 500’s growth of 7.1%.
Carnival’s performance has been fueled by strong consumer demand and a record-breaking booking environment. Higher pricing across major brands, coupled with a rise in onboard spending, has driven robust yield growth. Additionally, cost-saving initiatives have contributed to improved profitability.
With record booking trends extending into 2025, Carnival’s ability to secure higher prices and occupancy levels for all four quarters underscores sustained demand. The company’s progress toward its 2026 SEA Change targets, highlights its commitment to long-term value creation. As booking momentum continues into 2026, Carnival’s strategic execution and operational efficiencies position it for sustained growth in the upcoming periods.
6-Months CCL Stock Price Performance
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As of yesterday, Carnival stock is trading 17.7% below its 52-week high of $28.72 (attained on Jan. 31, 2025). So, should investors pour more capital into CCL now? Let us take a closer look.
Key Drivers of Carnival’s Growth
The cruise industry continues to witness unprecedented demand, with Carnival capitalizing on pricing strength. In 2024, yields increased 11% year over year, largely due to higher ticket prices across all major brands and trades, ranging from mid-single-digit to mid-teen percentage gains. Onboard spending also accelerated each quarter, further boosting revenues. Encouragingly, these trends have persisted into 2025, with booking volumes surpassing the prior year at even higher prices.
While demand for existing ships has been the primary driver of growth, Carnival continues to invest in fleet enhancements. In 2024, it introduced three new ships — Carnival Jubilee, Sun Princess and Queen Anne — all commanding premium pricing. Additionally, the company is focusing on destination-driven growth. The launch of Celebration Key in mid-2025 and the rebranding of Half Moon Cay (RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay) aim to enhance guest experiences and drive exclusive demand for Carnival’s cruises.
Carnival has extended its advanced booking windows to record levels in both North America and Europe. The company's pricing and occupancy advantages for 2025 bookings indicate sustained consumer confidence in its offerings. Moreover, Carnival’s marketing strategies have driven double-digit growth in both new and repeat cruise guests, pulling customers away from land-based alternatives.
A focus on cost optimization has played a crucial role in Carnival’s profitability. In 2024, the company reported a 100 basis points improvement in unit costs courtesy of cost-saving initiatives. The company stated that it has achieved 80% of its 2026 SEA Change targets, including a 50% increase in EBITDA per Available Lower Berth Day (ALBD) and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11%, thereby signaling long-term value creation.
CCL’s Challenges to Watch: Costs, Intense Competition & Global Risks
Despite efforts to improve operational efficiencies, Carnival continues to face cost headwinds, particularly in fuel and food expenses. Although the company managed to beat cost guidance in 2024, inflationary pressures remain a concern. Sustaining margin improvements amid fluctuating input costs could challenge Carnival’s ability to drive long-term profitability.
The cruise industry remains highly competitive, with peers like Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH aggressively expanding fleets and launching new itineraries. As the market becomes more crowded, Carnival could face increased pricing pressures, especially in its more value-focused brands, potentially impacting market share and profitability.
Global cruise operations expose Carnival to geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations and economic uncertainties. Disruptions in key markets, changes in travel regulations, or macroeconomic slowdowns could impact demand, particularly for international itineraries.
CCL’s Valuation: An Attractive Opportunity?
Carnival is trading at a discount. CCL is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.05X, well below the industry average of 2.28X, reflecting an attractive investment opportunity.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival’s 2025 earnings per share has climbed from $1.74 to $1.77 in the past 60 days, signaling optimism about the company’s future.
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Technical Pressures Ail CCL
From a technical perspective, CCL stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, signaling a bearish trend. This could deter momentum-driven investors and may lead to further short-term volatility in the stock price.
CCL Stock Trades Below 50-Day Moving Average
Zacks Investment Research
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CCL’s Investment Verdict: Hold for Now
Carnival is well-positioned for long-term growth, supported by strong consumer demand, record booking trends, and strategic investments in fleet enhancements and destination-driven experiences. The company’s ability to drive higher yields, boost onboard spending and progress toward its 2026 SEA Change targets provides a solid foundation for continued success.
However, challenges such as rising operational expenses, intense industry competition and global risks could impact near-term performance. Inflationary pressures, fuel and food cost volatility and heightened competitive pricing remain areas of concern, potentially affecting margins and profitability.
While Carnival’s strengths and discounted valuation present a compelling investment opportunity, external risks and technical pressures call for caution. Given the stock’s recent underperformance relative to its 50-day moving average and exposure to macroeconomic uncertainties, holding onto this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock may be a prudent choice for current shareholders. New investors are advised to wait for a more favorable entry point.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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