Shares of Carnival Corporation & plc CCL have been cruising higher, surging 28.7% in the past month compared with the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s 23.2% growth. Over the same timeframe, the stock has outperformed the S&P 500’s growth of 11.6%.
Carnival’s recent stock surge has been supported by a combination of strong earnings performance, improved macro sentiment, and growing institutional interest. Investor optimism has also grown amid easing trade tensions between the United States and China.
Investors responded positively, anticipating that the tariff reductions would ease cost pressures and support consumer spending on leisure services, in turn aiding cruise companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH, and OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited OSW.
With global consumer trends favoring experience-based spending, especially among travelers prioritizing quality time with friends and family, Carnival is benefiting from a significant tailwind. The company entered 2025 with more than 80% of the year already booked, at higher prices, and its booking curve is the furthest out on record. This pricing power and booking strength underscore Carnival's momentum and ability to navigate uncertainty in the upcoming periods.
One-Month CCL Stock Price Performance
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Given the backdrop, investors now face a critical decision: jump in at current levels or wait for a potential pullback? Let us take a closer look.
Factors Acting in Favor of Carnival
Carnival continues to benefit from increasing consumer demand for experience-based vacations, with cruise travel offering an attractive value proposition compared to land-based alternatives. In 2025, CCL has seen historically high pricing across all core programs, supported by robust booking volumes that extend well into 2026.
Carnival’s marketing efforts have played a significant role in accelerating momentum. High-impact campaigns during major global events such as the Oscars and Super Bowl, featuring celebrity partnerships and immersive brand content, have dramatically increased visibility. These efforts, along with strong brand positioning in major markets like the United States, the U.K., and Germany, are fueling broad-based consumer interest.
Carnival’s strategic operational moves are setting the stage for long-term value creation. The company has optimized its fleet, streamlined operations by sunsetting underperforming brands, and launched its AIDA Evolution program to refresh vessels and enhance fuel efficiency. Importantly, Carnival has limited new ship orders in the coming years, a decision that provides financial flexibility and allows the company to concentrate on debt reduction and margin expansion. The shift toward high-efficiency, modern ships not only supports environmental goals but also reduces operating costs and strengthens Carnival’s competitive positioning.
What Next for Carnival?
Carnival’s focus is clearly shifting from survival to growth. This transition is marked by a growing emphasis on revenue maximization rather than just occupancy recovery. With occupancy rates already normalized, the next phase for Carnival involves yield management, onboard spend enhancement, and strategic deployment of ships to high-demand markets.
Looking ahead, the company’s capacity growth will be relatively modest, which supports a supply-constrained pricing environment. This discipline, combined with a strong consumer appetite for travel experiences, should allow Carnival to continue growing revenue and margin. The company’s investments in exclusive destinations like Celebration Key, opening this summer, and the rebranded RelaxAway at Half Moon Cay are also set to enhance the guest experience and further differentiate Carnival in a competitive industry.
Geographically, North American and European markets are contributing positively, with some of Carnival’s European brands posting record booking days. Continued strength in these markets, combined with expansion into less penetrated regions like Asia, likely paves the path for further upside in the medium term.
Upgraded 2025 Guidance Instills Confidence in CCL Stock
Carnival has upgraded its full-year 2025 guidance. It expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $6.7 billion and adjusted net income nearing $2.5 billion. The company anticipates adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of around $1.83. Despite a flat capacity base, Carnival expects to deliver $600 million in additional earnings this year, more than a 30% increase from 2024, driven by strong demand and disciplined pricing.
The guidance boost is also supported by successful refinancing efforts, which are projected to add $100 million to the bottom line by lowering interest expenses. Combined with moderate cost savings and efficiency gains, these moves have enabled Carnival to raise its net income forecast by $185 million from the December guidance of $2.3 billion. The company now appears on track to hit its 2026 financial targets — 12% ROIC and a 50% increase in EBITDA per ALBD — a full year ahead of schedule.
EPS estimates for Carnival for 2025 have been revised upward, increasing from $1.76 to $1.85 over the past 60 days. This upward trend reflects strong analyst confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects. The company is likely to report solid earnings, with projections indicating a 30.3% jump in 2025. Conversely, industry players like Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise and OneSpaWorld are likely to witness growth of 29.8%, 12.6% and 14.1% year over year, respectively, in 2025 earnings.
CCL Earnings Estimate Trend
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CCL Stock Valuation & Technical Insights
Carnival stock is currently trading at a discount. CCL is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 11.71X, well below the industry average of 18.52X, reflecting an attractive investment opportunity. Other industry players, such as Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise and OneSpaWorld, have P/E ratios of 15.51X, 8.63X and 19.13X, respectively.
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From a technical perspective, CCL is currently trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating solid upward momentum and price stability.
CCL Stock Trades Above 50-Day Moving Average
Zacks Investment Research
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Analysts’ Expectations on Carnival Stock
Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook on Carnival stock. Based on short-term price targets from 24 analysts, the average price target is $27.67, suggesting a potential upside of 20.3% from the last closing price of $23. Price forecasts range from a low of $14, indicating a 39.1% downside risk, to a high of $34, which represents a possible 47.8% upside. Meanwhile, Carnival carries a solid average brokerage recommendation of 1.62 on a scale of 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), reflecting a favorable consensus. Among 26 brokerage firms, 18 analysts rate the stock as a Strong Buy and one as a Buy, underscoring confidence in Carnival’s growth potential.
Final Thoughts on CCL Stock
While Carnival’s recent surge reflects growing investor optimism, the fundamentals suggest there’s still significant room for upside. With strong booking trends, disciplined pricing, and a sharp focus on profitability, Carnival is in growth mode. The company’s upgraded 2025 guidance, margin expansion, and discounted valuation relative to peers make a compelling case for immediate action.
CCL stock is trading below its intrinsic value, even as earnings estimates continue to rise and market sentiment improves. With analysts projecting continued growth and Carnival exceeding key financial milestones ahead of schedule, the investment opportunity persists.
Investors looking to capitalize on this momentum may consider buying CCL stock now. The combination of strong fundamentals, strategic execution, and an attractive entry point makes this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock a timely investment opportunity.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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