Carnival Corporation & plc CCL is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Dec. 20, 2024.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 8 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported a loss per share of 7 cents. The consensus mark has increased by 2.3% in the past 60 days.
The consensus mark for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.94 billion, indicating growth of 10% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Carnival has an impressive earnings surprise history. CCL’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 318.1%.
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Earnings Whispers for CCL Shares
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for Carnival this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Carnival has an Earnings ESP of +17.72%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping CCL’s Q4 Results?
Carnival’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is expected to have gained momentum year over year, driven by robust demand, strategic cost management, and ongoing growth initiatives. Elevated booking trends and a strong pricing environment are likely to have fueled revenue growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
Our model estimates fiscal third-quarter passenger ticket revenues to rise 9.3% year over year to $3.8 billion. We expect onboard and other revenues to increase 5.3% year over year to $1.9 billion.
Increased focus on improving commercial activities, strategic portfolio management, and continued strong per diem growth are likely to have strengthened yields in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company anticipates fiscal fourth-quarter net yields to rise 5% (constant-currency basis) from 2023 levels. Carnival aims to generate Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.14 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, underscoring its ability to balance growth with financial discipline.
While Carnival continues to focus on growth, higher costs may weigh on the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter bottom line. Cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD, are expected to have increased by 8%, primarily due to elevated dry dock activity and advertising expenditures.
CCL Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
Shares of Carnival are sailing ahead at full throttle. The stock has gained 54.1% in the past six-month period, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s growth of 18.7%. CCL has also outpaced other industry players, including Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH, up 47.5%, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, up 50.8%, and OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited OSW, up 31.1%.
CCL Stock 6 Months Price Performance
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From a valuation perspective, CCL is trading relatively cheap. The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 14.32, below the industry average of 20.59. It has a Value Score of A.
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Investment Considerations for CCL Stock
Carnival’s strong demand trends have enabled the company to raise its full-year yield guidance for the third time in 2024, with 99% of its ticket revenue already booked. This momentum is carrying forward into 2025, with bookings and pricing at historical highs across all core deployments. It is supported by Carnival’s effective base-loading strategy. Nearly half of 2025 is already booked, and the demand curve continues to strengthen into 2026, as evidenced by record customer deposits and onboard spending growth.
Carnival’s growth is further supported by strategic investments, including the introduction of next-generation ships like the Sun Princess and Star Princess and the launch of Celebration Key in 2025, a premium destination expected to enhance revenues and operational efficiency. The company is also modernizing its existing fleet through initiatives like the AIDA evolution program while maintaining a disciplined order book with just three ship deliveries planned through 2028.
Carnival’s focus on high-margin yield growth, free cash flow generation, and aggressive debt reduction — totaling $7.3 billion since 2023 — has positioned it well for long-term success. With double-digit ROIC targets and further leverage improvements in sight, Carnival is set to create significant shareholder value while continuing its leadership in the global cruise industry.
Conclusion
Carnival is poised for continued success, supported by robust demand, record bookings, and strategic growth initiatives. The company’s ability to raise full-year yield guidance, achieve historical highs in pricing and bookings, and maintain strong onboard spending highlights its operational strength and effective execution. While cost pressures persist, Carnival’s disciplined cost management, fleet modernization, and focus on high-margin yield growth provide a solid foundation for sustained profitability.
With its attractive valuation, market leadership, and clear trajectory toward financial strength, Carnival remains a compelling option for long-term investors. As the company approaches its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, its momentum, combined with a favorable pricing environment and strategic investments, reinforces its position as a key player in the leisure and recreation sector. Whether for growth or value-oriented investors, Carnival’s strong fundamentals and forward outlook make it a stock worth considering.
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