Caterpillar Inc.’s CAT recently reported first-quarter 2025 results were not impressive, with the mining and construction equipment behemoth witnessing year-over-year declines in its top and bottom lines, and falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company reported volume declines across all its segments. The first quarter marked CAT’s fifth consecutive quarter of a revenue decline and the third straight quarter of earnings decline.
Despite the weak performance, CAT shares have risen 2% since the results, thanks in part to a record $5-billion sequential increase in backlog to $35 billion. Also, despite the tepid results, Caterpillar has not drastically slashed its projections for the full year.
The company expects 2025 revenues to be “roughly flat” with the 2024 actual, when excluding tariffs, slightly better than earlier projections. Including tariffs, revenues are expected to decline slightly, unchanged from the previous guidance.
Despite the uptick, the CAT stock has moved down 13.1% year to date compared with the industry’s 10% growth. In comparison, the Zacks Industrial Products sector has declined 8.7%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen 5.7%.
CAT’s Price Performance Vs Industry & Broader Market
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Meanwhile, Caterpillar’s peers Deere & Company DE and Komatsu KMTUY have fared better, with year-to-date gains of 13.3% and 4.7%. Another player in the industry, The Manitowoc Company MTW, has declined 10.9% in the same timeframe but fared better than CAT.
Caterpillar’s YTD Price Performance Vs Deere, Komatsu & Manitowoc
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Before addressing the critical question of how investors should position themselves regarding the stock, let us dig deeper into the first-quarter results and evaluate the CAT stock’s fundamentals.
Caterpillar’s revenues declined 10% year over year to $14.2 billion in the first quarter on lower volumes on changes in dealer inventories and unfavorable price realization. Earnings per share were $4.25, 24% lower than the year-ago quarter.
All three segments — Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and the Energy and Transportation segment reported lower volumes in the quarter. The Energy and Transportation segment was the only one to deliver a 1% year-over-year improvement in operating profit. However, it was not sufficient to negate the declines in the other two segments. For more details, read: CAT Q1 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates on Weak Volumes.
The operating cash flow declined to $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025 from $2.05 billion a year ago due to lower profits.
CAT ended the quarter with a solid backlog of $35 billion.
Caterpillar’s Updated Outlook for 2025
The company outlined its outlook for 2025 for both pre and post-tariff scenarios.
Excluding tariffs: Revenues will be flat compared with that reported in 2024, an improvement from its prior projection of a slight year-over-year decline. The adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be in the top half of its target range.
Including tariffs: Revenues are anticipated to be down slightly year over year, maintaining the previous expectation. The adjusted operating profit margin is expected within its target range.
The company maintains its revenue projection at $42-$72 billion, and margins are anticipated between 10% and 22%, per the respective revenue levels. This is shown in the chart below.
Earnings estimates for CAT have moved down 4% for 2025 and 5% for 2026 over the past 60 days. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 indicates a year-over-year decline of 13.5%. However, the same for 2026 suggests 10.8% growth.
CAT Continues to Battle Industry Pressures
Persisting Low Volume Trends: Caterpillar has been witnessing declines in overall volumes in six consecutive quarters due to muted consumer spending. The Resource Industries segment’s volume declined in the last seven quarters. Construction Industries’ volume growth has been in the red over the past six quarters. The Energy and Transportation segment has reported volume declines in three of the trailing four quarters.
CAT has also been impacted by the downturn in China's real estate sector, particularly for 10-ton and larger excavators, which was once a key market for the company. Weak demand in Europe added to revenue pressures.
The charts below show Caterpillar's revenue and earnings trends in the past four quarters.
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Tariff Concerns & Contraction in Manufacturing Sector: The U.S. manufacturing sector underwent a 26-month contraction till December 2024. Even though hopes were raised of a recovery with the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index moving up to 50.9% in January and 50.3% in February (above 50% indicated expansion), it was short-lived, with the index slipping to 49% in March.
The New Orders Index, which showed expansion with a 55.1% reading in January, dropped sharply to 48.6% in February and to 45.2% in March (the lowest level since May 2023). Rising concerns over tariffs led customers to scale back orders.
The company recently announced that COO Joseph Creed would succeed James Umpleby as CEO on May 1. Creed’s ability to navigate CAT through the current challenges will be closely watched.
Caterpillar’s Premium Valuation
CAT is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 16.00X, at a premium compared with the industry’s 14.89X.
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Meanwhile, Komatsu and Manitowoc are cheaper options, trading at forward 12-month P/E of 9.67X and 11.9X, respectively. Deere is, however, trading higher than CAT at a P/E of 23.92X.
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CAT’s Long-Term Growth Drivers Remain Intact
Despite short-term challenges, Caterpillar’s long-term outlook is supported by expected increase in U.S. infrastructure spending and growing demand for mining equipment due to energy transition. As miners are increasingly relying on autonomy to increase productivity and efficiency, and improve safety, CAT has been focusing on enhancing its autonomous fleet.
In Energy and Transportation, the increased focus on sustainability and the establishment of data centers will drive the demand for Caterpillar equipment. CAT has been seeing growth in aftermarket parts and service-related revenues, which generate high margins. The company is on track to double its service revenues from $14 billion in 2016 to $28 billion in 2026.
CAT’s 1.80% dividend yield is higher than the sector’s yield of 1.56% and the S&P 500’s 1.32%. The company has a five-year dividend growth rate of 7.7% and a payout ratio of around 27%. Caterpillar has a solid track of paying out higher dividends to shareholders for 30 straight years.
Deere has a dividend yield of 1.35% and Komatsu has 2.93%. However, MTW currently does not pay any dividends.
How Should Investors Approach CAT Stock Post Q1 Earnings?
Caterpillar’s premium valuation, coupled with ongoing declines in revenues and earnings, and industry pressures, suggests caution for new investors. With a new CEO at the helm, how he steers CAT through these turbulent times will be a key area of focus.
Existing shareholders should stay invested in Caterpillar’s stock to benefit from its solid long-term demand prospects, backed by infrastructure spending and energy-transition trends, as well as its focus on growing service revenues. CAT’s strong financial position enables it to invest in its businesses and return cash to shareholders through share buybacks and consistent dividend payments. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which supports our thesis.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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