In the ever-evolving landscape of the freight industry, a new phenomenon is emerging that threatens to upend the delicate balance between shippers and carriers. Known as “carrier revenge,” this impending shift in market dynamics promises to reshape how goods are transported across the nation.

The Great Freight Recession: Setting the stage

For the past two years, shippers have enjoyed unprecedented leverage in the freight market. Excess capacity has kept rates under significant pressure, leading to what some industry experts have dubbed “shippers’ revenge.” This period has seen truckload spot rates, when adjusted for inflation, plummet to lows not witnessed since 2009.

During the early stages of the Great Freight Recession, contract rates remained stubbornly high as shippers cautiously monitored the market, uncertain whether this reset was a temporary blip or a more substantial shift. However, by the first quarter of 2023, it became clear that the recession was not a fleeting phenomenon. Consequently, shippers began to demand significant rate concessions from carriers, a trend that only accelerated as the year progressed.

The Pendulum Swings: Signs of Market Recovery

Despite the prolonged downturn, recent data suggests that the Great Freight Recession is drawing to a close. Key indicators point to a market turnaround:

1. Rising tender rejections: Tender rejections have climbed to over 6%, indicating a tightening market where carriers can be more selective about the loads they accept.

2. Increasing spot rates: Spot rates are on the rise, surpassing those of 2022 and 2023. This trend suggests either a surge in demand or a decrease in available capacity, possibly both.

3. Decreasing capacity: The implementation of the FMCSA’s Clearinghouse-II regulations in November 2024 could potentially sideline 177,000 truck drivers, further tightening the market.

The looming threat of carrier revenge

As the market pendulum swings back in favor of carriers, the stage is set for “carrier revenge.” This concept implies that after enduring a period of low rates and intense competition, carriers may soon be in a position to leverage their newfound power. The implications for shippers could be significant:

1. Higher freight rates: As capacity tightens and demand increases, carriers may have the upper hand in negotiating higher rates.

2. Selective load acceptance: Carriers may become more discerning about which loads they accept, potentially disrupting shippers’ established routing guides.

3. Reduced flexibility: Shippers who have grown accustomed to the abundance of available capacity may find themselves struggling to secure transportation for their goods.