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As you might know, CareMax, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMAX) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$173m missing analyst predictions by 3.2%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.74 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for CareMax
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from CareMax's four analysts is for revenues of US$729.9m in 2023, which would reflect a decent 9.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 55% to US$0.42. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$767.1m and US$0.49 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a notable improvement in losses per share in particular.
There was no major change to the US$6.75average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic CareMax analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that CareMax's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 79% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while CareMax's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.