The Comvita Limited (NZSE:CVT) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 30% share price drop.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Comvita's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in New Zealand, where the median P/E ratio is around 16x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Comvita's negative earnings growth of late has neither been better nor worse than most other companies. It seems that few are expecting the company's earnings performance to deviate much from most other companies, which has held the P/E back. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. In saying that, existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the share price if the company's earnings continue tracking the market.
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Does Growth Match The P/E?
Comvita's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 13%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the two analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 25% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 20% per annum, which is noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that Comvita's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
What We Can Learn From Comvita's P/E?
With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for Comvita looks quite average now. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.