In This Article:
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Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.82
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Full Year Adjusted EPS: $7.10
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Q4 Operating Ratio: 62.6%
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Full Year Operating Ratio: 62.9%
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Revenue Change: Down 3% year-over-year in Q4
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Free Cash Flow: Approximately $3.1 billion for the full year
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CapEx Program for 2025: $3.4 billion
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Share Repurchase: Over 13 million shares for just over $2.3 billion as of December
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Dividend Increase: 5% for 2025
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EPS Growth Expectation for 2025: 10% to 15%
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RTM Growth Forecast for 2025: Low to mid-single digits
Release Date: January 30, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
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Canadian National Railway Co (NYSE:CNI) achieved a record year for grain shipments, reflecting robust exports and new facility volumes.
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The company reported the second-best accident and injury performances in its history, highlighting a strong safety record.
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CNI successfully reached a tentative agreement with the IBEW and a four-year agreement with Unifor, ensuring labor stability.
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The acquisition of Iowa Northern extends CNI's network reach and is expected to realize operational and commercial synergies.
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CNI's productivity initiatives, including engineering and mechanical improvements, are expected to mitigate inflation impacts and support operating leverage.
Negative Points
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CNI faced significant disruptions in 2024 due to labor disputes and port strikes, impacting volume and financial performance.
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The company's Q4 adjusted EPS decreased by 10% year-over-year, and the operating ratio increased by 330 basis points.
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CNI experienced a 3% decline in overall volume and revenue in Q4, partly due to lower potash shipments and softer demand for forest products.
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The early onset of winter in Western Canada led to prolonged tier restrictions, affecting the company's ability to clear backlogs.
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CNI's full-year free cash flow was approximately $800 million lower than the previous year, primarily due to higher capital expenditures and lower net cash from operating activities.
Q & A Highlights
Q: With respect to the volume outlook for 2025, can you elaborate on the recovery of volumes lost due to labor disruptions in 2024, particularly in US-bound international intermodal traffic? A: The recovery was hindered by a two-week port strike in the West in November. We're off to a good start in January, and we expect most recovery after the first quarter, post-Chinese Lunar New Year. We aim to normalize volumes to the levels seen in the first half of last year.
Q: Can you discuss the impact of discrete headwinds on 2024 and the outlook for 2025, particularly regarding operating ratio (OR) and incremental margin growth? A: The 2024 headwinds, including fuel impacts, affected OR by about 200 basis points. For 2025, we have a clear path on labor and are focused on driving margin improvement. The railroad is returning to its natural operating cadence, and we are targeting pricing above inflation to drive year-over-year margin improvement.