Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.29 per share (C$1.85), which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.26 and improved 0.7% on a year-over-year basis.Revenues for the first quarter of 2025 were $3.06 billion (C$4.40 billion), which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.11 billion and declined 2.6% year over year.
Revenue ton-miles (RTMs or a measure of volumes) increased 1% year over year. Carloads decreased 2% on a year-over-year basis. Freight revenue per RTM rose 3% year over year.
Operating expenses for the first quarter of 2025 rose 3.3% from the year-ago figure. The increase was mainly due to higher labor and fringe benefit expenses, as well as a rise in purchased services and material costs.
The operating income for the first quarter of 2025 grew 4.1% from the first quarter of 2024 actuals. The operating ratio, defined as operating expenses as a percentage of revenues, on an adjusted basis, deteriorated to 63.4% in the first quarter of 2025 from 63.6% in the first quarter of 2024.
Canadian National Railway Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Canadian National Railway Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Canadian National Railway Company Quote
CNI’s Q1 Segmental Highlights
Freight revenues, which contributed 97.3% to the top line, increased 4% year over year. Freight revenues in petroleum and chemicals; coal; grain and fertilizers; and automotive rose 7%,11%, 11% and 1%, year over year, respectively.
Revenues from metals and minerals; and intermodal segments fell 1% and 2%, respectively, compared with 2024 figures. Revenues from the Forest products segment remained flat year over year.
Segment-wise, carloads in petroleum and chemicals; metals and minerals; forest products, and intermodal segments decreased 1%, 11%, 6% and 2%, respectively. The same in the coal; grain and fertilizers; and automotive segments rose 5%, 4% and 2%, year over year.
CNI’s Liquidity
Canadian National ended the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of C$232 million compared with C$389 million at the end of the prior quarter. CNI exited the first quarter with a long-term debt of C$18.9 billion compared with C$19.7 billion at the end of the prior quarter.
CNI generated C$1.16 billion of cash from operating activities. Free cash flow was C$626 million.
Under its current Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), CNI may repurchase up to 20 million common shares between Feb. 4, 2025, and Feb. 3, 2026. As of March 31, 2025, CNI had not repurchased any common shares under its current NCIB.
CNI repurchased 13.9 million common shares under its previous NCIB, including 0.6 million common shares in the first quarter of 2025, which allowed for the repurchase of up to 32 million common shares between Feb. 1, 2024, and Jan. 31, 2025.
CNI’s Outlook
For full-year 2025, CNI anticipates delivering 10%-15% adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth and plans to invest approximately C$3.4 billion in its capital program, net of amounts reimbursed by customers.
Further, CNI now assumes slightly positive growth in North American industrial production in 2025 (compared with the prior expectation of 1%).
CNI continues to assume RTM growth in the low to mid-single-digit range. CNI also continues to assume that in 2025, the value of the Canadian dollar in U.S. currency will be approximately $0.70. For 2025, CNI assumes the average price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) will be in the range of $60-$70 per barrel (compared with the prior guided range of $70-$80 per barrel).
From 2024 to 2026, CNI aims for compounded annual adjusted diluted EPS growth in the high single-digit range.
CNI continues to assume that the North American industrial production will increase by almost 1% CAGR over the 2024-2026 period. CNI continues to assume pricing above rail inflation. CNI continues to assume that the value of the Canadian dollar in U.S. currency will be almost $0.70 and that the average price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) will be in the range of $70-$80 per barrel during this period.
CNI’s Zacks Rank
Currently, CNI carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
We note that another major player from the broader Zacks Transportation sector, Expeditors International of Washington EXPD, will report its first-quarter earnings numbers early next month. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
Expeditors, a leading third-party logistics provider, is based in Seattle, WA. EXPD currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 6.
While weak volumes (with respect to air-freight tonnage and ocean containers) stemming from soft demand and declining rates are likely to have hurt EXPD’s performance, efforts to cut costs in the face of demand weakness are likely to have driven the bottom line.
EXPD beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and matched estimates once, the average beat being 11.6%.
Q1 Performances of Other Transportation Companies
United Airlines
United Airlines’ UAL first-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 91 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the Chicago-based airline reported a loss of 15 cents per share.
Operating revenues of $13.21 billion fell marginally short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.22 billion. The top line increased 5.4% year over year despite the tariff-induced slowdown in domestic air travel demand. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 89.7% of the top line) rose 4.8% to $11.9 billion. The actual figure was short of our passenger revenue estimate of $12.5 billion. UAL flights transported 40,806 passengers in the first quarter, up 3.8% year over year.
Delta Air Lines
Delta Air Lines DAL reported first-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 9 cents from non-recurring items) of 46 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents. Earnings increased 2.2% on a year-over-year basis due to low fuel costs.
Revenues in the March-end quarter were $14.04 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.81 billion and increasing 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) rose 3.3% year over year to $13 billion.
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