Call between Xi and Biden won't break China-US deadlock, observers say
South China Morning Post
5 min read
An upcoming phone conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden is unlikely to break the deadlock in China-US relations as tensions mount over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's possible trip to Taiwan next month, according to Chinese diplomatic observers.
The two leaders are expected to have their fifth exchange on Thursday, but Beijing has yet to confirm. The conversation will involve Taiwan, the war in Ukraine and economic competition, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday.
Beijing has strongly opposed Pelosi's trip to the island, with Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian warning on Wednesday that the US would "bear the consequences" if Pelosi visited Taiwan.
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When asked to confirm the phone call between Xi and Biden, Zhao said he had no information to offer.
Lu Xiang, an expert on US-China relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said Pelosi's trip would "destroy the status quo of cross-strait relations, which would propel the current game into a new game".
Lu said he expected Biden to claim that he could not interfere with Pelosi's decision, despite stating earlier that the US military had advised against the trip.
"If, after the call, Pelosi still decides to visit Taiwan, then the consensuses reached [in the call] may all be aborted," he said.
Domestically, the US needs "a consensus on how to handle the relationship between the two countries", according to Zhu Feng, director of Nanjing University's institute of international studies.
"Biden will certainly claim that Pelosi is beyond his control, but then who will be responsible for China-US relations?"
Echoing military watchers' warning that Pelosi's trip could risk actual armed conflict, Zhu said: "I think President Xi will ask President Biden whether the US would really want to turn Taiwan into another Ukraine."
Zhu said there would be no change in the two countries' stance regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and cooperation on the issue would become "impossible" if Pelosi visited Taiwan.
The Associated Press, citing unnamed US officials, reported on Wednesday that the US military would increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region if Pelosi went to Taiwan.
Tourists take photo of the Taipei 101 skyscraper in Taipei in June 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Tourists take photo of the Taipei 101 skyscraper in Taipei in June 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE>
The officials did not provide details, but said fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time on the ground there.
Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Wednesday that discussion of any specific travel was premature, but "if there's a decision made that Speaker Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and they asked for military support, we will do what is necessary to ensure a safe conduct of their visit. And I'll just leave it at that."
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said he expected Biden to repeat the American positions of the one-China policy and "strategic ambiguity" - a policy that is deliberately unclear about US intentions in the event of a People's Liberation Army attack on Taiwan - while Xi will warn against supporting the island.
Shi said it was "very hard to find any possibility of breakthrough" on the major issues, even the partial removal of Trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports. He added that relations had worsened since the two leaders' last virtual meeting in March, when they discussed Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
China and the US have engaged in sabre-rattling in the run-up to this week's call.
The Chinese military has warned that it would not "turn a blind eye" if Pelosi went ahead, as the trip would support the independence of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province to be taken back by force, if necessary.
Chinese envoy to Washington Qin Gang said on Wednesday that Taiwan was the most critical and sensitive issue facing China-US relations.
He said pro-independence forces in Taiwan were the biggest threat to stability in the Taiwan Strait, and the Chinese military would take resolute measures if China's sovereignty were violated.
Qin also said it was important for the Chinese and US militaries to maintain communication to manage risk.
Pelosi is in the line of succession to the presidency and her overseas travel is a matter of US national security, Kirby said, adding that only she could make decisions about her travel.
Kirby said "bellicosity" in rhetoric from Beijing over the potential trip only escalated tensions.
"We find that unhelpful and certainly not in the least bit necessary given the situation," he said.
The administration has been debating whether to lift some tariffs on Chinese goods as a way to boost the US economy, but Kirby said a decision was not expected ahead of the call.
Shi said he expected the tariffs would remain in place, while Lu said Washington was using tariffs as a bargaining chip.
"Before Biden took office, he knew that the tariffs were damaging the US, with no advantages at all. But strategists around him are telling him the tariffs are bargaining chips that could be used as leverage in negotiations with China, which has misled him into not resolving [the issue]," Lu said.
