Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Wolters Kluwer N.V. (AMS:WKL)

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Wed, Sep 25, 2024, 10:45 PM 6 min read

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Wolters Kluwer N.V. (AMS:WKL) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Wolters Kluwer

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€1.48b	€1.56b	€1.62b	€1.67b	€1.71b	€1.74b	€1.77b	€1.80b	€1.82b	€1.84b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Est @ 3.79%	Est @ 2.96%	Est @ 2.38%	Est @ 1.98%	Est @ 1.69%	Est @ 1.49%	Est @ 1.35%	Est @ 1.26%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 4.8%	€1.4k	€1.4k	€1.4k	€1.4k	€1.3k	€1.3k	€1.3k	€1.2k	€1.2k	€1.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €13b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €1.8b× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (4.8%– 1.0%) = €49b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €49b÷ ( 1 + 4.8%)¹⁰= €30b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €43b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €157, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf — ENXTAM:WKL Discounted Cash Flow September 26th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Wolters Kluwer as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.926. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Wolters Kluwer

Strength

Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Weakness

Earnings declined over the past year.

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.

Threat

Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Dutch market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Wolters Kluwer, we've compiled three relevant factors you should explore:

Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Wolters Kluwer that you need to consider before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does WKL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ENXTAM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.