Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Westshore Terminals Investment fair value estimate is CA$26.81
With CA$23.91 share price, Westshore Terminals Investment appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
The average premium for Westshore Terminals Investment's competitorsis currently 194%
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Westshore Terminals Investment Corporation (TSE:WTE) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)
CA$105.8m
CA$120.9m
CA$113.9m
CA$110.1m
CA$108.2m
CA$107.6m
CA$107.9m
CA$108.8m
CA$110.1m
CA$111.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -5.77%
Est @ -3.39%
Est @ -1.72%
Est @ -0.55%
Est @ 0.27%
Est @ 0.84%
Est @ 1.24%
Est @ 1.53%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0%
CA$98.0
CA$104
CA$90.5
CA$80.9
CA$73.7
CA$67.8
CA$63.0
CA$58.8
CA$55.2
CA$51.9
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$743m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CA$2.0b÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)10= CA$913m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$1.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$23.9, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
TSX:WTE Discounted Cash Flow October 10th 2024
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Westshore Terminals Investment as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.409. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Westshore Terminals Investment
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Currently debt free.
Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
No major weaknesses identified for WTE.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Westshore Terminals Investment, we've compiled three essential elements you should explore:
Future Earnings: How does WTE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
