Does the April share price for The Weir Group PLC (LON:WEIR) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)
UK£264.1m
UK£318.6m
UK£350.7m
UK£364.3m
UK£375.9m
UK£386.2m
UK£395.5m
UK£404.0m
UK£412.2m
UK£420.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x6
Analyst x6
Analyst x4
Est @ 3.86%
Est @ 3.20%
Est @ 2.73%
Est @ 2.40%
Est @ 2.17%
Est @ 2.01%
Est @ 1.90%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1%
UK£244
UK£273
UK£278
UK£267
UK£255
UK£242
UK£229
UK£217
UK£205
UK£193
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£2.4b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.1%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£6.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= UK£3.0b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£5.4b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£20.4, the company appears about fair value at a 3.1% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
LSE:WEIR Discounted Cash Flow April 8th 2024
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Weir Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.178. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Weir Group
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Weir Group, we've compiled three fundamental elements you should assess:
Future Earnings: How does WEIR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
