Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Tata Steel Limited (NSE:TATASTEEL) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)
₹-189.84k
₹81.02k
₹102.74k
₹124.21k
₹143.48k
₹162.32k
₹180.91k
₹199.51k
₹218.39k
₹237.81k
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x13
Analyst x13
Analyst x11
Analyst x1
Est @ 15.52%
Est @ 13.13%
Est @ 11.45%
Est @ 10.28%
Est @ 9.46%
Est @ 8.89%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 22.87%
₹-154.51k
₹53.67k
₹55.39k
₹54.50k
₹51.24k
₹47.18k
₹42.79k
₹38.41k
₹34.22k
₹30.33k
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= ₹253.21b
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 7.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 22.9%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = ₹₹1.7t ÷ ( 1 + 22.9%)10 = ₹212.91b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹466.12b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of ₹406.16. Relative to the current share price of ₹473, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NSEI:TATASTEEL Intrinsic value, May 23rd 2019
The assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tata Steel as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 22.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.781. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Tata Steel, I've compiled three essential aspects you should further examine:
Future Earnings: How does TATASTEEL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of TATASTEEL? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every IN stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
