Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of StrongPoint ASA (OB:STRONG)
Simply Wall St
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of StrongPoint ASA (OB:STRONG) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Levered FCF (NOK, Millions)
NOK35.0m
NOK49.0m
NOK47.3m
NOK46.4m
NOK46.0m
NOK46.0m
NOK46.2m
NOK46.6m
NOK47.1m
NOK47.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -3.51%
Est @ -1.93%
Est @ -0.82%
Est @ -0.05%
Est @ 0.5%
Est @ 0.87%
Est @ 1.14%
Est @ 1.33%
Present Value (NOK, Millions) Discounted @ 9.09%
NOK32.1
NOK41.2
NOK36.4
NOK32.7
NOK29.8
NOK27.3
NOK25.1
NOK23.2
NOK21.5
NOK20.0
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= NOK289.0m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.1%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = NOKkr663m ÷ ( 1 + 9.1%)10 = NOK277.88m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NOK566.88m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of NOK12.83. Relative to the current share price of NOK11.25, the company appears about fair value at a 12% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
OB:STRONG Intrinsic value, September 8th 2019
The assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at StrongPoint as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.23. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For StrongPoint, I've compiled three relevant factors you should further research:
Future Earnings: How does STRONG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of STRONG? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the OB every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
