Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Pebble Beach Systems Group plc (LON:PEB)

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Thu, Aug 22, 2024, 11:42 PM 5 min read

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Pebble Beach Systems Group plc (LON:PEB) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Pebble Beach Systems Group

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£1.00m	UK£1.04m	UK£1.08m	UK£1.11m	UK£1.14m	UK£1.17m	UK£1.20m	UK£1.22m	UK£1.25m	UK£1.27m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Est @ 4.15%	Est @ 3.49%	Est @ 3.02%	Est @ 2.69%	Est @ 2.46%	Est @ 2.30%	Est @ 2.19%	Est @ 2.11%	Est @ 2.06%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%	UK£0.9	UK£0.9	UK£0.9	UK£0.8	UK£0.8	UK£0.8	UK£0.7	UK£0.7	UK£0.6	UK£0.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£7.7m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£1.3m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.6%– 1.9%) = UK£23m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£23m÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)¹⁰= UK£11m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£19m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£0.1, the company appears about fair value at a 18% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf — AIM:PEB Discounted Cash Flow August 23rd 2024

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Pebble Beach Systems Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.178. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Pebble Beach Systems Group, we've put together three relevant items you should assess:

Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Pebble Beach Systems Group (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
Future Earnings: How does PEB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.