Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of APG|SGA SA (VTX:APGN)
Simply Wall St
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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of APG|SGA SA (VTX:APGN) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Levered FCF (CHF, Millions)
CHF40.27
CHF48.46
CHF50.39
CHF52.25
CHF54.13
CHF56.01
CHF57.93
CHF59.89
CHF61.89
CHF63.95
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 3.71%
Est @ 3.58%
Est @ 3.49%
Est @ 3.42%
Est @ 3.38%
Est @ 3.35%
Est @ 3.33%
Present Value (CHF, Millions) Discounted @ 8.32%
CHF37.18
CHF41.30
CHF39.64
CHF37.95
CHF36.29
CHF34.67
CHF33.10
CHF31.59
CHF30.14
CHF28.75
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= CHF350.62m
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 3.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = CHFCHF1.3b ÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10 = CHF588.23m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CHF938.85m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of CHF313.17. Compared to the current share price of CHF266, the company appears about fair value at a 15% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SWX:APGN Intrinsic value, June 28th 2019
The assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at APG|SGA as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.847. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For APG|SGA, I've compiled three relevant aspects you should further research:
Future Earnings: How does APGN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of APGN? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every CH stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
