Tribune Resources' estimated fair value is AU$4.23 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Tribune Resources' AU$3.48 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
Tribune Resources' peers seem to be trading at a lower discount to fair value based onthe industry average of 17%
How far off is Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)
AU$12.6m
AU$12.4m
AU$12.3m
AU$12.3m
AU$12.4m
AU$12.5m
AU$12.7m
AU$12.9m
AU$13.1m
AU$13.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Est @ -3.89%
Est @ -2.08%
Est @ -0.80%
Est @ 0.08%
Est @ 0.71%
Est @ 1.14%
Est @ 1.45%
Est @ 1.66%
Est @ 1.81%
Est @ 1.92%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2%
AU$11.8
AU$10.7
AU$9.9
AU$9.3
AU$8.7
AU$8.2
AU$7.8
AU$7.4
AU$7.0
AU$6.7
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$88m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$270m÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= AU$135m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$222m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$3.5, the company appears about fair value at a 18% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
ASX:TBR Discounted Cash Flow March 13th 2024
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tribune Resources as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.099. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Tribune Resources
Strength
Currently debt free.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.
Opportunity
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine TBR's earnings prospects.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by earnings.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Tribune Resources, we've compiled three additional elements you should look at:
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
