The projected fair value for Coventry Group is AU$1.11 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of AU$1.23 suggests Coventry Group is potentially trading close to its fair value
Coventry Group's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -21%
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Coventry Group Ltd (ASX:CYG) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)
AU$6.10m
AU$8.50m
AU$10.3m
AU$9.78m
AU$9.50m
AU$9.38m
AU$9.37m
AU$9.43m
AU$9.54m
AU$9.68m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -5.07%
Est @ -2.82%
Est @ -1.25%
Est @ -0.15%
Est @ 0.62%
Est @ 1.15%
Est @ 1.53%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5%
AU$5.6
AU$7.2
AU$8.1
AU$7.0
AU$6.3
AU$5.7
AU$5.3
AU$4.9
AU$4.6
AU$4.3
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$59m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$162m÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= AU$71m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$130m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
ASX:CYG Discounted Cash Flow October 6th 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Coventry Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.486. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Coventry Group
Strength
Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Trade Distributors market.
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by earnings.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Coventry Group, we've compiled three additional factors you should look at:
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for CYG's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
