The key thing to watch today is how the markets deal with a lack of resolution, across several fronts.
We’re seeing some pent-up celebration of the Nasdaq Composite’s (^IXIC) first new all-time high in 15 years, a noteworthy but lagging indicator of how far the market has come.
Yet more significant for serious investors is the continued bashfulness of the broader S&P 500 index in its chase for a new high. The S&P (^GSPC) spent a small bit of time Thursday at a fresh record, but by the close the benchmark slipped back just a touch beneath the top end of its enduring, narrow three-month range.
Perhaps the grinding, halting character of the recent rally is fitting. This entire bull market has often appeared as a grudging, measured climb rather than a burst of upside energy. This has kept investor sentiment in check and, so far, has prevented equity prices from advancing too far beyond what the corporate and economic fundamentals merit.
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For now, the chart-reading sticklers for strict market mechanics will tell you the market has not yet shown a decisive breakout and will reserve judgment on which direction the next 5% move will take. If forced to make a call, most would lean to the optimistic side right now: The market has run most of the earnings gauntlet in decent form so far and last night’s results from tech and consumer bellwethers are being received well.
McMillan Analysis, a longtime market handicapper, points out that market breadth – the running tally of stocks rising versus falling – hit a new high this week, which speaks to some decent energy underneath the indexes. Have the bears missed one too many opportunities? We still await resolution on that question.
The failure of Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable Inc. (TWC) to resolve regulators’ concerns about their planned merger is another interesting dynamic at play today. Comcast, by all reports, has decided not to fight government concerns about the combined company’s market power and will walk away from the deal. A key takeaway here is that regulators today view cable companies principally as Internet service providers – the owners of the critical broadband pipes – rather than bundlers and distributors of content.
The idea that the merged company would control 57% of broadband households and could determine what content is sent to those homes, how fast and at what cost was possibly too much for the FCC to allow right now.
The immediate response by deal-sniffing traders was to assume that Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) would be a clear winner here, with an ability to be a consolidator in the industry. But maybe the regulators’ concerns will also limit just how much of a broadband footprint Charter will be allowed to build?