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Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Bicycle Therapeutics will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected. The market seems to be pricing in some improvement in the business too, with the stock up 7.0% over the past week, closing at US$21.77. Could this big upgrade push the stock even higher?
Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Bicycle Therapeutics from its 14 analysts is for revenues of US$20m in 2023 which, if met, would be a huge 41% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$4.60 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$16m and US$4.63 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.
See our latest analysis for Bicycle Therapeutics
There were no major changes to the US$52.79 consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation than growing sales. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Bicycle Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$72.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$33.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Bicycle Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 41% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 18% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Bicycle Therapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.