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Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:BNL) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.09, some 49% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$109m. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Broadstone Net Lease from eight analysts is for revenues of US$449.2m in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 3.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$0.60, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$449.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.71 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
See our latest analysis for Broadstone Net Lease
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$19.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Broadstone Net Lease at US$22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Broadstone Net Lease's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Broadstone Net Lease's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.4% over the past five years. Compare this to the 24 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Broadstone Net Lease's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.