British borrowing costs surge after wage shock

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Money markets indicate there is less than a 40pc chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three times next year
Money markets indicate there is less than a 40pc chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three times next year - REUTERS/Mina Kim

The cost of UK government borrowing is on track to reach its highest level in 34 years when compared to Germany, after doubts emerged about how fast the Bank of England could cut interest rates.

The difference between UK and German 10-year bond yields - known as the spread - has widened to as much as 229 basis points after the latest official figures showed a surge in wage growth.

If sustained, the spread would be the largest gap between British and German government borrowing costs since the early weeks of German reunification in 1990, surpassing levels reached during the bond market crisis after Liz Truss’s mini-Budget two years ago.

The surge in UK bond yields - the return that the government promises to buyers of its debt - comes after traders slashed bets on the Bank of England reducing borrowing costs next year.

Money markets indicate the Bank of England may not cut interest rates again until as late as May after wages rose by 5.2pc in the three months to October.

The rise was well ahead of analyst estimates of a rise to 5pc and up from 4.9pc in the previous three months.

Total pay, which includes bonuses, jumped from 4.4pc to 5.2pc, well ahead of forecasts for 4.6pc.

As a result, traders are betting there is just a 40pc chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three times next year, compared to 80pc before the figures were published.

Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Facing this renewed trade-off between weaker growth and still strong inflation pressures the Monetary Policy Committee will keep interest rates on hold this week and will have to proceed cautiously. We expect three 25bp rate cuts next year.”

Andrew Wishart of Berenberg said Britain faces “a nasty cocktail of falling employment and strong pay” which will make “uncomfortable reading at the Bank of England”.

Read the latest updates below.


05:44 PM GMT

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05:31 PM GMT

European stocks drop to two-week low

Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell to a two-week low today, as investors awaited a slew of major central bank decisions later in the week.

The pan-European index ended 0.4pc lower, its lowest closing level since Dec 2.

Oil and gas companies dropped 1.3pc to the lowest level in 17 months, as crude prices slid after economic data from China renewed concerns about demand.

European banks were another drag, down 1.8pc, with Spanish lenders such as Santander and Sabadell at the forefront of losses.

While the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a quarter of a percentage point interest rate cut tomorrow, the focus will be the pace of easing next year as the US economy appears to be on a steady footing. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan’s rate announcements are due on Thursday.