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Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Briscoe Group Limited (NZSE:BGP) share price is up 39% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market decline of around 1.6% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 3.5% , including dividends .
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for Briscoe Group
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Briscoe Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 5.7% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 7% per year. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Briscoe Group's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Briscoe Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Briscoe Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 85%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Briscoe Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 3.5% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 13% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Briscoe Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Briscoe Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.