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Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) just crushed expectationsagain. The Chili's parent posted blowout earnings of $2.80 per share, leaving Wall Street's $1.86 estimate in the dust. Revenue jumped to $1.358 billion, powered by a 31% spike in Chili's comparable sales. The Triple Dipper, a $20 mix-and-match tray that's taken social media by storm, continues to be a game-changer. Simplifying the menu down to five core offeringsburgers, Crispers, fajitas, margaritas, and the Triple Dipperhas paid off big. Investors took notice, sending the stock up 15% to yet another all-time high.
Brinker isn't slowing down. The company now sees full-year earnings landing between $7.50 and $8.00 per share, blowing past its previous outlook of $5.20 to $5.50. Revenue projections? Raised againto a range of $5.15 billion to $5.25 billion. A 19.9% traffic boost at Chili's, thanks to aggressive marketing and operational tweaks, is fueling the surge. CEO Kevin Hochman says new guests keep pouring in, and existing customers are dining out more often despite a crowded promotional landscape. That's a strong signal that Chili's value-driven strategy is sticking.
But there's a catchBrinker's stock isn't exactly cheap. At over 22 times forward earnings, it's flirting with the highest valuation in its history. While its sales growth justifies the premium for now, comps will get tougher in the back half of the year. UBS analyst Dennis Geiger warns that expectations are sky-high, and with the stock up over 350% in a year, the risk-reward balance is getting tighter. The real question: Can Brinker keep this momentum going, or is the rally running out of steam?
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.