Brexit Update – The Markets Await Details as the Pound Inches towards $1.36

Bob Mason

Wed, Dec 23, 2020, 7:36 PM 2 min read

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After a gloomy start to the week for the Pound, a real sense of hope has returned, supporting the Pound and riskier assets.

With Brexit negotiations continuing this week, news hit the wires late on Wednesday that a deal was imminent.

The British PM reportedly briefed the cabinet, with the UK Parliament having only 7-days to ratify any agreement.

For Parliament and the markets, the devil will be in the details. Of particular interest will be what concessions Boris Johnson has made to get over the finishing line.

Both Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson were involved in negotiations this week to end the deadlock.

According to news reports, quotas on different species of fish were remaining issues being ironed out overnight on Wednesday.

What’s next?

If an agreement is in fact reached today, the UK Parliament and EU Parliament will need to ratify the agreement.

All EU member states will need to agree to the terms of the agreement. For the UK Parliament, the House of Commons and the House of Lords will need to vote on the agreement.

While Parliament is in recess, a session could be called early next week to provide time to debate and then vote on the agreement.

There’s unlikely to be much wriggle room for amendments, however, when considering the duration of talks.

Following the recent House of Lords vote against the Internal Market Bill, there may also be some apprehension ahead of the vote. A House of Lords vote against the agreement could bring into question, once more, the future of the House of Lords…

For the EU and the European Parliament, the time has run out, which means that the EU would vote retrospectively in the New Year.

In recent weeks, EU Chief Negotiator Barnier has kept EU member states updated on progress and terms. There should, therefore, be no surprises and allows for a provisional application ahead of an EU Parliament ratification.

The Pound

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.44% to $1.35474. As the Pound inches towards $1.36 levels, a surge to $1.40 could be on the cards once both sides announce any agreement.

Once the dust settles, however, we can expect some Pound sensitivity to chatter from peers and Members of Parliament.

The markets will need to remain confident that any agreement would be ratified to support any upside from this week. With volumes on the lighter side, leaving liquidity thin, any moves could also be more significant.