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While Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BFH) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 15% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been pleasing. To wit, it had solidly beat the market, up 46%.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over the last twelve months, Bread Financial Holdings actually shrank its EPS by 62%.
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.
We are skeptical of the suggestion that the 1.6% dividend yield would entice buyers to the stock. Unfortunately Bread Financial Holdings' fell 20% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Bread Financial Holdings the TSR over the last 1 year was 48%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Bread Financial Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 48% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 12% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bread Financial Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Bread Financial Holdings you should know about.