Brace for waves, not ripples, in wake of mill closure
Vicki Hyatt, The Mountaineer, Waynesville, N.C.
Updated 4 min read
Apr. 9—Ripple effects through Haywood County's economy have emerged as a chief concern surrounding the impending closure of the Canton paper mill and reduction of the Waynesville plant — a ripple effect that far exceeds the tangible number of nearly 1,100 lost jobs.
During a Haywood County Chamber of Commerce gathering Wednesday, business leaders learned the new term for the economic spin off of the closure: the "wave effect."
For instance, Pactiv Evergreen uses 2 million tons of wood fiber annually that comes from a 200-mile radius of Canton. That market alone amounts to millions.
"When we first started talking, it was about a ripple effect. The last few weeks, it's a wave effect. Things keep adding and adding," said David Francis, the county's community and economic development director. "It's amazing what all the mill has impacted over 100-plus years. It's a big footprint."
Research economist Tom Tveidt, owner of Syneva Economics, will be releasing a definitive report in coming weeks. So far, his preliminary estimates suggest that the Pactiv Evergreen exit will represent a roughly $70 million impact on suppliers alone.
That doesn't count the impacts to related businesses or the reduced household income in the county that translates into less money to spend at area retail establishments.
"I don't think there is an industry that won't be touched," Tveidt said. "Pick your industry, it will be impacted somehow. It will be in demand for restaurants, retail stores on down the line. It will be very significant."
Tveidt presented a chart showing employment in the manufacturing sector in Haywood over the past 20 years. Here's a snap shot:
—Early 2000s: Manufacturing represented nearly 16% of jobs in the county, or 2,500 jobs.
—Recession era: The number dipped to around 11% during the recession, or 1,900 jobs.
—Pre-pandemic: The number rose again to 16.2% just before the pandemic, or 2,850 jobs.
—Post mill closure: The manufacturing sector will drop to fourth, or 1,670 jobs.
More significant will be the total wage loss represented by the shift, according to Tveidt's research.
Presently, the average monthly salary of the unionized Pactiv Evergreen employees is nearly $7,100.
Meanwhile, the average monthly salary in other manufacturing sectors is $5,346, and just $3,900 a month when all industry sectors are factored in.
"It will be hard to find jobs with these high wages in the community or even surrounding communities," Tveidt added.
The mill closure also changes the top employer standings in the county.
"This is a new world we're entering," Tveidt said. "We've never been in a situation with so few people in manufacturing. The largest industry now is retail sales, the second largest is hotels and restaurants, the third is healthcare, and manufacturing is dropping to fourth."
Doug Burchfield, HCC's dean of workforce and industry, said the college is gearing up to offer machining classes this summer and move up its truck driver training and electric linemen programs, which were originally planned to start in the fall.
He said the college has presented information to mill employees about ongoing career training offered at the college.
"Mostly we're listening and trying to find out what people are wanting," Burchfield said, adding there will be a large job fair at the college on May 4 and 5.
David Garrett, workforce development director of the Southwestern Commission, spoke of a variety of programs available for not just mill workers, but others who were losing jobs as a result of the mill closure.
These ranged from mortgage assistance, to help with insurance issues to a plethora of training options.
Garrett works with the state's Rapid Response team, which will be meeting with mill workers next week and providing each workers an individualized packet of information including severance pay, unemployment benefits and other resources.
"We want to make sure they understand what comes next," Garrett said. "We are working with state officials on a national dislocated worker grant, which would have occupational training pay for classes, on-the-job training help and funds to improve workforce systems with NC Works partners."
Canton Mayor Zeb Smathers addressed the group to thank all who have stood by the town, offering support in multiple ways.
"There's not a playbook for this in the mayor's handbook. We will get to the future, but right now it's about these families," Smathers said of the workers who will be displaced by the Pactiv Evergreen decision. "Some have said this will be a mill town miracle. I disagree. A miracle is an assumption against all odds. This is the mill town moonshot. Every resource we need to move forward exists in this room and in Haywood County."
Smathers offered a hint as to the town's future.
"The river brought the first settlers to Haywood County. The river brought the mill. I think the river will deliver next chapter," he said.
