The recent sharp rise in US crude oil inventories has added to worries about lower oil demand, while comments from US president Donald Trump since his return to the White House have piled further pressure on the market.
In a speech in his first week back in office, Trump said he wanted Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices. Additionally, the US is expected to intensify sanctions on Iran – which holds 24% of the Middle East's oil reserves and 12% of global reserves – with Trump vowing to drive Tehran’s oil exports to zero.
These are the latest factors to drag on oil prices, with major companies already feeling the squeeze on refining margins.
Investor attention will now turn to fellow oil major BP, which is due to report on Tuesday 11 February.
Despite weaker quarterly results, BP (BP.L) announced a share buyback of $1.75bn, as part of its commitment to announce $3.5bn in purchases in the second half of the year.
In a trading statement in January, BP (BP.L) flagged that realisations in its oil production and operations segment are expected to have a $200m to $400m impact on its fourth quarter figures. BP also warned of weaker refining margins in the range of $100m to $300m.
BP shares had a stronger start to the year but are still down 10% over the past year.
AJ Bell (AJB.L) investment experts Russ Mould, Danni Hewson and Dan Coatsworth said: "There is a sense that shareholders are becoming restless ... as they wait for BP to clarify its strategy on oil and gas production, renewable energy and the future direction of the group.
"The good news from the fourth-quarter update was that $3bn in asset sales across the whole of 2024 take total divestments to more than $19bn since a target of $25bn was set in 2020," they said. "That has helped to reduce net debt, which had crept back up to $23bn excluding pensions and leases and $31bn including them by the end of the third quarter."
Barclays (BARC.L) is to report its full-year results on Thursday, 13 February, marking the beginning of a crucial earnings season for UK banks. As the first of the FTSE's (^FTSE) major lenders to report, its performance will be closely watched by investors, with analysts expecting a rise in pre-tax profits to £8.1bn for 2024, up from £6.6bn in 2023.
The bank’s results will be shaped by several key factors: the performance of its investment bank, loan and deposit growth, net interest margins, and any potential loan impairments. Notably, Barclays (BARC.L) has seen net interest margins rise throughout 2024, bolstered by the sustained higher interest rates, which have helped boost net interest income. Consumer reactions to the higher rates may be less favourable, though this has nonetheless benefitted Barclays' bottom line, AJ Bell said.
Deposits saw a slight dip in the third quarter, but Barclays is expected to report solid loan growth. Impairment ratios remain modest—0.37%—suggesting that concerns over loan losses remain largely contained, despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
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The spotlight will also fall on Barclays' investment banking unit, according to AJ Bell experts. They said: “Barclays’ much-discussed investment bank will also be scrutinised, given the historic volatility of its earnings and the current relative dearth of initial public offerings, even though global stock markets are generally looking perky. By way of a benchmark, the unit earned £892m in pre-tax income in the third quarter of 2024 and a small loss in the final three months of 2023.”
On the cash return front, Barclays is set to declare a total dividend of 8.6p per share, with an additional £1.8bn in share buybacks, bringing total cash returns to £3bn for 2024, or 7% of its market capitalisation, according to AJ Bell. This will be welcomed by investors, although Barclays' stock now trades near its historic book value, suggesting a more cautious outlook for further share buybacks in 2025, Mould, Hewson and Coatsworth warned.
NatWest (NWG.L) Group will report its full-year results on Friday, 14 February, with analysts forecasting a pre-tax profit of £6.1bn for 2024, slightly down from £6.2bn in 2023. Despite the challenging economic backdrop, NatWest has demonstrated resilient performance, particularly in terms of loan growth, which marked its ninth consecutive quarter of growth as of Q3 2024, AJ Bell said.
The bank’s results will reflect key trends in the industry, including the impact of higher interest rates on net interest margins. These margins have remained strong throughout 2024, with NatWest benefiting from higher rates. However, the bank has so far avoided significant increases in loan impairments, with impairment ratios of just 0.25% in Q3 2024, indicating that the risk of large-scale loan losses remains low, Mould, Hewson and Coatsworth wrote.
NatWest will also face questions about its capital returns, with analysts expecting a dividend payout of 19.4p per share, along with a total of £4.8bn in cash returns for 2024, or 14% of its market capitalisation. This will be closely scrutinised given the bank's ongoing buybacks, particularly as the UK government's stake in NatWest has fallen below 10%, with expectations of further buybacks in 2025.
Investors will also be keen to understand the bank’s position on litigation and conduct issues, especially around the car financing market, though this appears to be a lower risk for NatWest than others like Lloyds.
San Francisco-based Airbnb is set to reveal its fourth-quarter results on Thursday, with analysts predicting a year-over-year decline in earnings, despite higher revenues.
The travel-tech giant is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.63 per share, reflecting a 17.1% drop from the same period last year. However, revenues are forecast to rise by 9.2%, reaching $2.42bn, according to Zacks Equity Research.
While the company’s revenue growth shows promise, research analysts at Wedbush are less optimistic about its profit prospects. Wedbush analyst S Devitt has revised their earnings estimate downward, forecasting just $0.20 per share for the quarter, compared with their previous projection of $0.24. Despite the adjustment, Wedbush maintains an "Outperform" rating on the stock, with a target price of $155.00.
Airbnb (ABNB) has struggled to keep pace with broader market performance over the past year. The company’s stock has fallen 10.5% over the past 52-week period, and is down 1.4% year-to-date. In contrast, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has surged 22.6% over the past year, with a 3.1% gain in 2025.
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Other analysts have also weighed in on Airbnb’s prospects. On 18 November, investment firm DA Davidson raised its price target on the stock from $125.00 to $131.00, while maintaining a “neutral” rating. Benchmark, meanwhile, reiterated a “buy” rating and set a price target of $155.00 in a report released on 8 November.
Ahead of its earnings release, Airbnb (ABNB) has seen increased interest from institutional investors. KBC Group NV, for instance, raised its stake in the company during the fourth quarter. According to the firm's latest filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the hedge fund acquired an additional 41,446 shares, bringing its total holdings to 128,054 shares, valued at approximately $16.8m.
Lyft (LYFT) is expected to post a year-over-year increase in earnings, alongside higher revenues, when it reports its results for the quarter ended December 2024.
Wall Street analysts anticipate the ride-hailing company will deliver earnings of $0.23 per share, marking a 21.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecast to reach $1.55bn, reflecting a 26.5% rise from the previous year, according to Zachs Equity Research.
In terms of analyst sentiment, Canaccord Genuity Group has raised its price target for Lyft from $18.00 to $22.00, maintaining a "buy" rating in a research note released on 7 November. Meanwhile, Needham & Company reaffirmed a "hold" rating on the stock in a report published the same day. Jefferies Financial Group also upped its target price on Lyft, moving it from $10.50 to $13.00 while retaining a "hold" rating in a research report from 22 October.
Lyft has recently announced an innovative partnership with Anthropic, integrating the Claude AI assistant to manage customer service requests. Claude has already been deployed to handle service inquiries from drivers, significantly reducing resolution times by 87%, according to the company.
In contrast, Lyft's main rival, Uber, reported mixed results for the fourth quarter and issued more cautious guidance for the first quarter of 2025.
Monday 10 February
McDonald's (MCD)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM, 2330.TW)
Porvair (PRV.L)
Mediobanca (MB.MI)
Rockwell Automation (ROK)
ON Semiconductor (ON)
Loews Corp (L)
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)
Amkor (AMKR)
Coty (COTY)
Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)
Tuesday 11 February
Babcock International Group (BAB.L)
Bellway (BWY.L)
Coca-Cola (KO)
Dunelm Group (DNLM.L)
PZ Cussons (PZC.L)
Shopify (SHOP)
TUI (TUI1.DE)
Wynnstay (WYN.L)
MJ Gleeson (GLE.L)
Macquarie (MQG.AX)
UniCredit (UCG.MI)
Deutsche Boerse (DB1.DE)
Kering (KER.PA)
SGS (SGSN.SW)
Stora Enso (STERV.HE)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Marriott International Inc (MAR)
DoorDash (DASH)
AIG (AIG)
Humana (HUM)
GlobalFoundries (GFS)
Carlyle Group (CG)
Zillow (Z)
Wednesday 12 February
Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L)
Barrick Gold (GOLD)
Heineken (HEIA.AS)
TBC Bank Group (TBCG.L)
Softbank (9984.T)
EssilorLuxottica (EL.PA)
Ahold Delhaize (AD.AS)
Siemens Energy (ENR.DE)
Schindler (SCHN.SW)
Michelin (ML.PA)
Aker (AKER.OL)
Randstad (RAND.AS)
Cisco (CSCO)
Equinix (EQIX)
CME Group (CME)
Williams (WMB)
CVS Health (CVS)
Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
Kraft Heinz (KHC)
Reddit (RDDT)
Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Interpublic (IPG)
MGM Resorts (MGM)
Thursday 13 February
Unilever (ULVR.L)
British American Tobacco (BATS.L)
Coca Cola HBC AG (CCH.L)
Nestle (NESN.SW)
Relx (REL.L)
Renishaw (RSW.L)
Tate & Lyle (TATE.L)
Sony (6758.T)
Japan Tobacco (2914.T)
Honda Motor (7267.T)
Nissan Motor (7201.T)
South32 (S32.AX)
Siemens (SIE.DE)
Pernod Ricard (RI.PA)
KBC (KBC.BR)
Orange (ORA.PA)
Legrand (LR.PA)
Commerzbank (CBK.DE)
Moncler (MONC.MI)
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW.PA)
Delivery Hero (DHER.DE)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Deere & Company (DE)
Brookfield (BN)
Duke Energy (DUK)
Motorola Solutions (MSI)
Coinbase Global (COIN)
Zoetis (ZTS)
GE Healthcare (GEHC)
Ingersoll Rand (IR)
DraftKings (DKNG)
Molson Coors (TAP)
Friday 14 February
SEGRO (SGRO.L)
Coca-Cola Europacific partners (CCEP.L)
okio Marine (8766.T)
Japan Post Bank (7182.T)
Olympus (7733.T)
Asahi (2502.T)
Rakuten (4755.T)
Kirin (2503.T)
Hermès (RMS.PA)
Safran (SAF.PA)
Kingspan (KGSPF)
Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL)
Moderna (MRNA)
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