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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Uber Technologies (UBER) earns a Zacks Rank #3 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 14, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.52 a share.
UBER has an Earnings ESP figure of 3.04%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.52 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.50.
UBER is just one of a large group of Computer and Technology stocks with a positive ESP figure. Paycom Software (PAYC) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on May 7, 2025, Paycom Software holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $2.64 a share 23 days from its next quarterly update.
Paycom Software's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 0.84% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.62.
UBER and PAYC's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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