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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Paccar (PCAR) earns a Zacks Rank #2 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.70 a share, just 11 days from its upcoming earnings release on January 28, 2025.
PCAR has an Earnings ESP figure of 1.19%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.70 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.68.
PCAR is one of just a large database of Auto-Tires-Trucks stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Allison Transmission (ALSN).
Allison Transmission is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 11, 2025. ALSN's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.11 a share 25 days from its next earnings release.
Allison Transmission's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 9.33% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.93.
PCAR and ALSN's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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