BOE’s Bailey Backs Market on Close Call at Next Rates Decision
BOE’s Bailey Backs Market on Close Call at Next Rates Decision · Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said market bets putting its next interest-rate decision on a knife-edge are a “reasonable starting point.”

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In an interview following the BOE’s decision to hold rates at 4.75% on Thursday, Bailey said that the “world is too uncertain” to commit to a cut in borrowing costs in February.

“The market says ‘well, they might cut in February. They might not.’ [It’s a] pretty reasonable starting point,” Bailey said. “I think the path is downwards, but I really would caution that at this stage, with the amount of uncertainty, we can’t tell you by how much or when particular moves are going to take place.”

Market wagers suggest there is a two-thirds chance of a rate cut in February after the BOE signaled on Thursday that it will stick to its easing plan despite concerns over a recent jump in wage growth and inflation. Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee called for an immediate reduction, reinforcing the dovish tilt to the meeting.

Bailey played down the significance of data earlier this week showing an unexpectedly strong jump in wage growth, which prompted traders to slash their bets on 2025 rate reductions.

“There was a bit of a surprise, but it’s nothing like what you saw in the headline number,” he said. “There was a fairly unusual fall in the rate of growth of wages this time last year, which didn’t last, and that’s coming out to the series.”

Bailey added that there were “more normal conditions” in the labor market after a surge in wages helped to keep inflation elevated.

--With assistance from Irina Anghel.

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