Is Bodycote plc's (LON:BOY) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Financials In Any Way?

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Simply Wall St

Thu, Sep 21, 2023, 11:55 PM 4 min read

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Bodycote is:

11% = UK£85m ÷ UK£756m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every £1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of £0.11.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Bodycote's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

To begin with, Bodycote seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 14%. However, while Bodycote has a pretty respectable ROE, its five year net income decline rate was 12% . Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

That being said, we compared Bodycote's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 7.3% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth — LSE:BOY Past Earnings Growth September 22nd 2023

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is BOY worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether BOY is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Bodycote Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Bodycote's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 64% (or a retention ratio of 36%). With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely.

Moreover, Bodycote has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 45% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the lower expected payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Bodycote certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which means that investors aren't reaping the benefits of the high rate of return. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.