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BMO Survey: Rising Recession Concerns Among Canadians Sidelining Prospective Homebuyers

In This Article:

  • Half believe owning a home is less attainable than in 2024.

  • 43% of homeowners say they could not have purchased their home without family assistance.

TORONTO, May 5, 2025 /CNW/ - The latest BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals that while over two thirds (67%) of homebuyers are waiting for interest rates to drop before purchasing a home – a 5% decrease from 2024 – experts say many more Canadians may take a "wait and see" approach as concerns about the prospect of an economic recession increased from 60% to 74% from March to April 2025.

"Canada's housing market remained under pressure heading into the spring, with sales and prices both weakening further," said Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. "There is some clear underlying weakness as inventory builds and investors remain absent. Suffice it to say, homebuyers are losing confidence and motivation, especially in areas of B.C. and Southern Ontario."

The BMO survey examines how concerns about the economy have influenced Canadians' homebuying decisions:

  • Revisiting Rates: Over two-thirds (67%) of prospective homeowners believe rates affect their buying decisions. Two in five (38%) Canadians are waiting for rates to drop to 3% or lower before purchasing or refinancing home. In addition, 44% admit they are unsure about the rate they would be comfortable with to move forward with buying or refinancing their home.

  • Missed Momentum: When looking at the current housing market, 56% of prospective homeowners feel they missed their moment to buy a home. Two-thirds (66%) of Millennials feel they had missed their homebuying moment – more than any other generation.

  • Challenged Confidence: While 59% of Canadians believe homeownership is one of their greatest life aspirations, half (50%) believe owning a home is less attainable than it was 12 months ago, and two-thirds (66%) are less confident that they will own a home in their lifetime compared to five years ago.

  • Deferred Demand: Among the 38% of homebuyers planning on purchasing a home in the near future, only 14% plan to in 2025 and a quarter (24%) plan on doing so in 2026 or later.

  • Location, Location, Location: More than half (52%) of aspiring homebuyers would consider moving to a different province or country in order to afford buying a home.

"While current economic conditions present uncertainties and challenges, there are opportunities for Canadians to achieve the goal of homeownership with guidance and planning," said Gayle Ramsay, Head, Everyday Banking Segment & Customer Growth, BMO. "Working with a professional advisor can help homebuyers stay informed and navigate the current environment, understand the strategies available, then develop a personalized plan that prioritizes resilience and long-term stability, empowering them to pursue homeownership while making real financial progress."