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Shareholders might have noticed that BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.3% to US$36.58 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.13 per share on revenues of US$326m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for BJ's Restaurants
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from BJ's Restaurants' nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.39b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 19% to US$1.57. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.62 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$38.88, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic BJ's Restaurants analyst has a price target of US$45.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BJ's Restaurants' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BJ's Restaurants.