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Bitcoin has wobbled since breaching the $100,000 milestone earlier this month — but history suggests a new all-time high could be in sight by around mid-January, according to crypto research firm K33.
The largest cryptocurrency BTCUSD rose 6.1% on Tuesday to around $98,679 at last check, bouncing back from below $93,000 on Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Bitcoin hit a record high at $108,309 on Dec. 17, but tumbled last week along with stocks after the Federal Reserve signaled it would deliver fewer interest-rate cuts in 2025 than policymakers previously anticipated.
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The average duration from bitcoin’s first to last all-time record high during each cycle has been 318 days based on data from its last three cycles, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33. As bitcoin hit its first record high on March 5 during this current cycle, investors may see the crypto reach a new, final peak this cycle on Jan. 17, 2025, if the average duration of previous cycles repeats.
Crypto analysts often divide bitcoin’s price performance into four-year cycles — each of which see it experience four phases including breakout, hype, correction and accumulation. The cycles are primarily based on the schedule of bitcoin’s halving, a mechanism to control the crypto’s supply where the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half. Halving happens roughly every four years, with the most recent one happening in April this year.
If bitcoin does reach a cycle peak in mid-January, it would be close to Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president, which falls on Jan. 20.
“Trump’s election has been the catalyst behind the strong fourth-quarter rally, and the inauguration would be a natural conclusion of the momentum, given the likelihood of political processes needing time to materialize,” Lunde wrote in a recent note.
Using estimates based on previous cycle-peak prices, bitcoin may reach a peak at $146,000 this cycle, Lunde wrote. When using previous market capitalization as reference, bitcoin could hit a top at $212,500 this cycle, Lunde added.
Read: History suggests bitcoin could hit $150,000 in 2025 — but watch for these bumps ahead