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BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) just released its full-year report and things are looking bullish. Results overall were credible, with revenues arriving 3.9% better than analyst forecasts at €2.8b. Higher revenues also resulted in lower statutory losses, which were €2.77 per share, some 3.9% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for BioNTech
Taking into account the latest results, the 18 analysts covering BioNTech provided consensus estimates of €2.17b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a substantial 21% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 67% to €4.63 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.54b and losses of €3.40 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$140, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic BioNTech analyst has a price target of US$172 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$111. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await BioNTech shareholders.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 21% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 20% per year. It's pretty clear that BioNTech's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.