NEW YORK — So after a quite productive week in which he hit two homers in a game to beat the Blue Jays and a day later drove in the game-winning walk-off run in the series opener against the hated Astros, Aaron Judge’s ongoing contract drama with the Yankees has cleared the first hurdle with an (apparently) amicable arbitration settlement at the midway point of $19 million.
So now what?
The way this thing has played out so far — with Judge betting on himself after rejecting the Yankees’ seven-year, $213.5 million extension offer back in April and now embarking on his best season ever as he heads into free agency — I am reminded of something Joe DiMaggio said years ago when somebody asked him what he thought he’d be worth in today’s baseball market. “All I can say,” the Clipper responded, “is that I’d probably have to sit down with (’50s Yankee owner) Mr. (Dan) Topping and suggest to him, ‘let’s be partners.’ ”
I wouldn’t say that will be Judge’s proposal to Hal Steinbrenner when they begin free-agent talks this fall, but if he continues on with this monster season of his — in which he’s presently leading the majors in homers, runs and total bases and hitting .300 where’s he’s never been before — he’ll be in line for a sizeable chunk of the Yankee owner’s money above the $213.5M he turned down. Right now, he also has to be considered the front runner (even over Shohei Ohtani) for the AL MVP award which would net him an additional $250,000 per the arbitration settlement. But just how much above the $213.5M is the question.
Throughout his contract negotiations with the Yankees last winter, Judge made it clear he wanted to be paid commensurate to Mike Trout and the record 12-year, $430 million deal the Angels star signed in 2019, and already the usual media “agents” are touting Judge as the next $300 million man in baseball. But for that to happen, the Yankees would have to tack on at least two more years to their offer, bringing the 30-year-old Judge to age 39 at the end of his contract. When Trout signed his deal he was only 27, meaning the Angels could reasonably expect getting their money’s worth at least for the first 9-10 years of the contract, to his mid-’30s (although he already missed almost all of last season with a calf injury).
As it was, the offer from Steinbrenner, which Judge rejected, would have given him an AAV of $30.5M, second only in baseball to Trout’s $35.5M. I don’t think, at this point, Steinbrenner would have any problem paying Judge, the face of his franchise, $36M a year. It’s just for how many years? He could do it simply by upping his seven-year original offer by $52 million. Then it would be up to Judge to decide if he had to have over $300 million for 9-10 years. And, if so, would there be another owner out there willing to go that high for a 30-year-old player who missed large chunks of three of his first four seasons due to injuries?