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BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. BBAI is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, after the closing bell.
In the last reported quarter, BigBear.ai reported revenues of $43.8 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19.1% but increased 8% year over year. The company’s bottom line in the fourth quarter was heavily impacted by non-cash charges—specifically, a $93.3 million hit from changes in derivative liabilities tied to the new 2029 convertible notes—resulting in a net loss of $108 million for the quarter.
This artificial intelligence (AI) provider surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with an average negative surprise of 30.7%. You can see the historical figures in the chart below. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Are Estimates Placed for BigBear.ai Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter earnings per share has remained unchanged at a loss of 6 cents over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates an improvement from the year-ago loss of 22 cents. The consensus mark for revenues is $35.9 million, suggesting an 8.4% year-over-year increase. For 2025, BBAI is expected to witness a 5.7% improvement from the 2024 level.
For 2025, BBAI is expected to register 80.9% bottom-line improvement from a year ago.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for BigBear.ai
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BigBear.ai for the quarter to be reported. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: BBAI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Influencing BigBear.ai’s Q1 Performance
BigBear.ai’s first-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from its solid backlog level and strengthened technology portfolio.
BigBear.ai operates in sectors that are set for continued investment both domestically and internationally — namely defense, border security, intelligence, and critical infrastructure. Demand for AI-driven solutions across these segments remains strong as governments prioritize national security and smart infrastructure projects. The company's positioning in these markets, combined with its growing reputation for delivering advanced AI capabilities, is expected to have contributed to its quarterly performance.
BigBear.ai is strengthening its market position through strategic collaborations with major companies like Amazon AMZN, Palantir PLTR and Autodesk ADSK. Amazon Web Services (AWS) has integrated BigBear.ai’s ProModel solution into AWS ProServe, enhancing logistics and warehousing operations with predictive AI capabilities. Palantir has partnered with BigBear.ai to expand its AI applications in defense and intelligence, reinforcing BigBear.ai’s credibility in mission-critical sectors. Additionally, Autodesk has adopted BigBear.ai’s technologies to advance its design and engineering platforms, highlighting BigBear.ai’s growing role in industrial automation and simulation.
Also, its focus on innovation and operational efficiencies is expected to contribute to its gross margin.
However, as the company’s revenues remain heavily reliant on government contracts, any delays in the commencement of new contracts create unpredictability around funding levels. Efforts to optimize government spending could delay new project starts, a headwind not unique to BigBear.ai but affecting all government suppliers. This remains a key risk factor for revenue consistency.
While BigBear.ai has not issued explicit first-quarter 2025 revenue or profitability guidance, the full-year 2025 guidance of $160 million to $180 million in revenue and negative single-digit millions in adjusted EBITDA suggests that early quarters could be characterized by ongoing investment and revenue recognition variability. The company’s focus in the first quarter will likely remain on maintaining delivery standards on existing contracts, advancing high-impact AI initiatives, and selectively investing in future growth areas while navigating federal funding complexities.