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The analysts covering Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.
Following the latest downgrade, the eight analysts covering Bicycle Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$8.8m revenue in 2021, which would reflect a concerning 26% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 37% to US$2.84 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11m and losses of US$2.85 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.
See our latest analysis for Bicycle Therapeutics
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bicycle Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 21% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 31% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bicycle Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Bicycle Therapeutics after today.
So things certainly aren't looking great, and you should also know that we've spotted some potential warning signs with Bicycle Therapeutics, including dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other flags we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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