Katy Perry kissed the sky – and she liked it. Sure, it was a stunt, but Blue Origin’s recent all-female spaceflight wasn’t just for show. It spotlighted a fast-evolving commercial space economy that’s already deeply woven into our daily lives. From satellite-powered TV and GPS to real-time Earth imaging, space tech keeps the world spinning. And this is just liftoff – there’s no telling how far beyond the final frontier the space economy could go.
For now, we can measure it in dollar terms. According to Precedence Research, the global space technology industry is valued at approximately $500 billion and is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2034. In 2024, the commercial segment dominated the market, holding the largest share at 68%.
Like so much of the market today, the space economy is dominated by the tech titans. Blue Origin, which sent Ms. Perry and her compatriots above the atmosphere, is owned by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, and the largest private space start-up is Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is valued at approximately $350 billion. But the sheer size and potential of the space economy means that there is plenty of room for smaller companies to take off, and there are several to choose from.
Wall Street’s analysts are doing that by choosing and looking into the details of the ‘launch and exploration’ companies, to find the ones that are best poised for liftoff. We’ve used the TipRanks platform to find out the broader view on two of these picks; here they are, along with the analyst comments.
Rocket Lab USA(RKLB)
The first space stock we’ll look at is Rocket Lab USA, a mid-cap private space launch firm that specializes in developing and deploying reusable small-payload launch vehicles. The company developed this niche in response to customer demand for a cost-effective mode of sending micro-sized and small-sized satellites into low-Earth orbit. These satellites are used for a wide range of purposes, with prominent uses including wireless networking and photo surveillance, and the company’s customer base includes government agencies, satcom providers, communications firms, and imaging companies.
Rocket Lab has been sending payloads into orbit since 2018, with its primary vehicle being its proprietary Electron rocket. The Electron is a small-payload vehicle, capable of lofting a 300 kilogram payload into low-Earth orbit and capable of reuse after a safe return. To date, Rocket Lab has made 63 successful Electron launches and deployed 224 satellites.
The company is not sitting still on the success of its small payload program, however. Rocket Lab has an active development program, and is nearing operational readiness for its next launch vehicle, the Neutron medium-lift, human-rated rocket. The Neutron is scheduled for its debut launch during the second half of this year, and Rocket Lab reports that the program is on schedule. In terms of capabilities, the Neutron will be able to take a 13,000 kilogram cargo into orbit, or – more ambitiously – a 1,500 kilogram cargo to Mars or Venus. The company is developing a launch facility for Neutron in Virginia, with landings to take place on a floating ocean platform downrange.
Like many leading-edge, early-stage tech firms, Rocket Lab operates at a loss – but its revenue stream has been growing on a year-over-year basis. In the last earnings release, for 4Q24, the company’s quarterly top line came to $132.4 million, a company record and up an impressive 120% year-over-year. The firm’s net loss for the quarter was 10 cents per share, flat year-over-year and about as expected.
This stock has caught the eye of Needham analyst Ryan Koontz, who is impressed by the high potential of the Neutron system as a challenger to SpaceX. Koontz writes of Rocket Lab, “RKLB is a disruptive company in the fast-evolving space sector. Their deep vertical integration differentiates the company and puts RKLB in a prime position to challenge market leader SpaceX. Their Space Systems business, supplying turn-key satellite buses and subsystems, is benefiting from strong growth in government and commercial LEO constellation launches. Profits from Space Systems fund the company’s Launch business, already proven for small-lift with its Electron rocket, and is soon expected to enter medium-lift launch with Neutron. Electron has reached maturity now with over 60 successful launches, while Neutron is expected to complete its first commercial missions in C26 and deliver on re-usability. Successful Neutron launches and wins vs SpaceX are expected to meaningfully improve revenue, earnings and cash flow beginning in C26.”
Koontz quantifies his stance with a Buy rating for RKLB, and his $28 price target suggests that the stock will gain 24.5% in the year ahead. (To watch Koontz’s track record, click here)
Overall, Rocket Lab gets a Moderate Buy from the Street’s consensus, based on 13 recent reviews that include 9 to Buy and 4 to Hold. The shares are priced at $22.48 and their $27.91 average price target nearly matches Koontz’s objective, allowing for 12-month returns of 24%. (See RKLB stock forecast)
Intuitive Machines(LUNR)
Next up is Intuitive Machines, a space company that has set its sights on the Earth’s moon. The Moon has been the target of successful government-supported space exploration missions for the past 60 years, but it still has a strong allure in the space industry. The allure of the Moon is supported by the fact — that we rarely think about — that the Earth is one of the largest objects in the solar system, and so spaceflight from the Earth’s surface entails escaping from a significant gravitational field. A shorter hop to the Moon, however, followed by reprovisioning and refueling, has long been seen as a cost-effective strategy to jump to our neighboring planets, or even beyond.
The first step, however, is to explore the Moon, and that is where Intuitive Machines comes in. The company, from its base in Houston, Texas, is working to provide lunar delivery platforms, data transmission to and from lunar probes and vehicles, and various infrastructure services, all designed to create open access to our only natural satellite.
Intuitive Machines has already worked with NASA to send unmanned probes to the Moon, with two missions, IM-1 and IM-2, achieving soft landings in February 2024 and February 2025. Both missions were considered partially successful; the probes landed on their sides, although their instrumentation was able to send some data back to Earth. The company is contracted to work with NASA on the IM-3 mission early next year, and plans are in the works for an IM-4 mission that will deliver two data relay satellites to the Moon.
In an interesting development, Intuitive Machines announced in early April that it will be using the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to carry the IM-4 mission.
The company has also announced the award of a $10 million grant from the Texas Space Commission for the development of an Earth reentry vehicle and an orbital fabrication lab. These spacecraft are intended as part of microgravity biomanufacturing, with future application in the field of sample return from lunar missions.
Looking ahead, Intuitive Machines can count on plenty of work. The company had a backlog at the end of 2024 totaling $328.3 million. That was up 22% year-over-year, and was a record level for the firm.
On the financial side, Intuitive Machines brought in $54.7 million worth of revenue in 4Q24, a figure that was up 79% year-over-year — although it did miss expectations by $1.11 million. The company’s net loss in Q4, listed as the ‘net income (loss) attributable to the Company,’ came to $149.2 million.
Despite the net loss, Canaccord analyst Austin Moeller takes an upbeat view of Intuitive Machines. He particularly cites the work backlog, and notes that it comes from both government and private sources. Moeller writes, “We continue to believe the combination of Intuitive Machine’s robust backlog opportunities (LTV, VIPER, NSNS, commercial Nebula missions, IM-5 and/or IM-6) and its expected long-term revenue growth expectations (from NSNS, OMES III, LTV and CLPS) are more attractive than government contractor peers in the space sector… Our long-term thesis on the company remains intact, and we believe LUNR currently sits at an attractive entry point for long-term investors given its topline growth profile and expected positive Adj. EBITDA generation in 2026.”
Moeller rates LUNR shares as a Buy, with a $21 price target that indicates room for a robust 132% upside in the coming year. (To watch Moeller’s track record, click here)
This innovative space stock currently has a Strong Buy consensus rating on the Street, based on 6 reviews that break down to 5 Buys and 1 Hold. The stock is priced at $9.05 and its $15.67 average price target suggests a one-year upside potential of 73%. (See LUNR stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
