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Wall Street was downbeat last week, with the S&P 500 losing 0.7%, the Dow Jones shedding 1.1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.6%. A spike in U.S. Treasury yields, driven by the release of upbeat jobs data, contributed to this slump. The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield started the week at 4.62% and ended at 4.77%.
Inside Jobs Data
The U.S. economy added 256, 000 jobs in December 2024, the most in nine months, following a downwardly revised 212,000 in November, and once again beating market forecasts of 160,000. Figures for October were also adjusted, resulting in a combined downward revision of 8,000 for October and November.
In December, employment trended up in health care (up 46,000), government (up 33,000), and social assistance (up 23,000). Considering full 2024, payroll employment rose by 2.2 million in 2024, an average monthly gain of 186,000, below 3.0 million in 2023 which represents an average monthly gain of 251,000. However, the figures continue to signal a strong and stable labor market.
Upbeat Economic Indicators
The December U.S. ISM Services Price Index increased to 64.4 from 58.2 in November, indicating rising inflationary pressures in the services sector. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a higher-than-expected number of job openings (read: Play Defensive ETFs to Counter Stock Market Slump).
The combination of rising prices and persistent job openings may lead traders to reassess their expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. This follows the central bank's December stance, suggesting fewer rate cuts in the near term ahead of the next meeting scheduled for Jan. 28–29.
Oil Rally
Oil prices logged a third successive weekly gain, marking the best performance since July. United States Oil Fund LP USO advanced 4.2% last week, United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO advanced 4.6%. Consumer inflation in China continues to decline to zero, highlighting ongoing economic struggles in the world’s top oil importer. This raises concerns about likely weakness in demand, although reduced Chinese imports of Iranian oil have contributed to tighter global supplies (read: Should You Buy Oil ETFs on Its Best Weekly Run Since July?)
Crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub have declined to their lowest levels since 2014, indicating a tightening market. This reduction, combined with lower Russian shipments and increasing demand for heating fuels due to cold weather, has supported the recent price surge.
Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few winning leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of the last week.