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'Best to be cautious': Tariff jitters are high as analysts head toward Amazon's first-quarter earnings
Filip De Mott
5 min read
Future Publishing/Future Publishing via Getty Images
Amazon will report first-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday.
Uncertainty is high as tariffs could directly impact the e-commerce firm.
But outlooks among Wall Street firms remain relatively strong.
Wall Street is feeling upbeat but cautious before Amazon's first-quarter earnings report on Thursday.
While investors are eager to gauge how the e-commerce giant performed amid the rise in recession fears during the first three months of the year, Amazon's second-quarter guidance will be particularly important.
That's because the company is especially vulnerable to tariffs, which could create a particularly challenging environment for retailers.
Still, Wall Street remains bullish on the firm's results, looking for signs of strength from Amazon Web Services and AI spending.
Here's what the biggest banks are saying:
Deutsche Bank: Cautious about full-year 2025
Amazon will meet conservative expectations for the first quarter, but things will get trickier from here, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
Earnings revenue should come in strong at $155.5 billion, boosted by a weaker dollar. But while April shows signs of strength, with consumer demand bolstered by fears of painful tariffs later in the year, investors shouldn't expect that to last.
Deutsche listed a handful of overhangs that could lead to challenges going forward. They include a revenue slowdown in the second half of the year, weak ad checks in the first quarter, and tariff implications for costs and advertising revenue.
"All in, we believe it best to be cautious at this point, and model total 2Q revenue growth $159bn ~170bps below the street, on Q/Q growth of only 2% as we look for a more muted consumer demand environment to drive sub-seasonal growth for Amazon as we move through year," analysts wrote.
Deutsche holds a "Buy" rating on the stock, with a $206 share price target.
Bank of America sees Amazon as a potential trade-deal beneficiary
Amazon can deliver a strong first quarter, Bank of America said, but the company is entering "unchartered (and tariffed) seas in 2Q."
BofA analysts expect Amazon to slightly beat consensus estimates with $155.5 billion in sales, predicting that consumer spending held up well amid tariff jitters. Meanwhile, the bank said expectations for 17.4% year-to-year AWS growth are realistic.
While BofA mirrored Deutsche Bank's uncertainty on how tariffs could disrupt future quarters, it remains optimistic.
"We acknowledge 2Q & 2H revenue uncertainty (retail, ads and Cloud), but remain confident on Amazon's ability to take share in eCommerce, improve retail margins via headcount cuts, & benefit from Cloud AI demand," BofA wrote. Shares of Amazon, a trade deal beneficiary, could benefit from tariff negotiations.
Bank of America maintains its "Buy" rating, and holds a price objective of $225.
CFRA: Tariffs will drive market share
Analyst Arun Sundaram expects Amazon to beat first-quarter estimates, forecasting $155.2 billion in revenue and $18.1 billion in operating profits.
Supporting margins are a sliding greenback, tariff-hastened consumption, e-commerce cost reductions, and faster growth in advertising, cloud, and subscriptions.
As with other firms, CFRA instead expects guidance for second-quarter earnings to be particularly important for investors.
But while they're a near-term risk, Sundaram sees tariffs as an opportunity for Amazon to boost market share. Meanwhile, the end to the de minimis import rule next month, which exempts tariffs on lower-priced goods, could make Amazon more competitive against firms like Temu or eBay.
Amazon's spending plans will also be top of mind for investors, given the company's mixed signals on capital expenditures. Though the firm is a major AI hyperscaler, CFRA sees a possibility that investment spending pulls back amid a weaker macroeconomic outlook.
On April 24, CFRA lowered Amazon's price target to $245 per share.
JPMorgan says stay bullish on the cloud and AI
The outlook for Amazon remains fundamentally positive, with several factors justifying bullish expectations, JPMorgan said.
The bank expects rising operating income, improved positioning in the artificial intelligence sector, and AWS cloud growth to pick up in the second half of the year. First-quarter sales should reach $154 billion, while AWS will expand 16.5%.
"We remain bullish as AMZN drives non-Al growth & tightens the GenAl gap, which supports improved AWS trends in 2H," analysts wrote. "N.America margins continue to expand supported by inbound regionalization & inventory placement, SD facility buildout, & automation/robotics, supporting FC ramp despite heavy 2025 cape growth."
To be sure, tariffs will be the near-term threat, but Amazon has options, JPMorgan said. Although 30% to 40% of products could be sourced from China, the firm could pressure suppliers to take on added costs, cancel orders, re-route supply chains, or have consumers bear the cost of tariffs.
JPMorgan rates Amazon "Overweight," with a $220 price target for the stock.
Goldman Sachs: Reducing China exposure
Goldman analysts lowered estimates to showcase a more conservative outlook, as dropping consumer confidence and rising trade barriers bite into Amazon's margins.
Amazon faces key risks ranging from product inflation to profit headwinds stemming from the firm's investment frenzy.
However, when it comes to headwinds, a Goldman analysis found that Amazon could significantly mitigate costs by reducing exposure to China, and focusing more on domestic merchandise.
"AMZN continues to be the most debated stock among our wider coverage universe on the back of higher global trade tensions," the analysts wrote. "Looking long-term, AMZN remains one of our top picks and provides investors with a range of exposures to virtually all key secular growth themes across Consumer Internet and Cloud Computing."
Goldman holds a "Buy" rating with a $220 target on the Amazon stock.
