(Bloomberg Opinion) -- President Alexander Lukashenko’s Soviet-lite regime in Belarus has been dealt a blow from which it will not recover. Unfortunately, Russia can keep it on life support for some time to come.
Thousands of demonstrators filled the streets of Minsk again last weekend, and the outrage remains palpable. That, unfortunately, may not matter. The Kremlin’s now overt backing has emboldened the collective farm boss-turned-autocrat. If he hangs on, Belarus will pay the price.
Left fighting for survival after claiming an implausible landslide victory three weeks ago, Belarus’ strongman responded true to form with a violent crackdown and thousands of arrests. But as protests and strikes spread, Lukashenko appeared to teeter on the edge. At one point, he traveled to a state-owned factory — to visit the very people who once credited him with saving their jobs — only to find them chanting “leave” when he addressed them, a scene reminiscent of Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu’s last speech in December 1989.
Yet while Ceausescu was ousted days later, the 66-year-old Lukashenko has dug in. He is now sending increasingly belligerent signals — none more desperate than footage of the president stepping off a helicopter wearing a bullet-proof vest and carrying a gun, accompanied by his teenage son in combat gear. He has spoken, without evidence, of foreign forces massing on the border. Reporters and strike leaders have been detained, and the opposition’s coordination council for the transition of power is under investigation. Representatives including Nobel Prize-winning author Svetlana Alexievich have been questioned.
Over the weekend, the government expelled foreign journalists covering the ongoing demonstrations. None of that points to a leadership about to yield. Lukashenko has Moscow to thank.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has no good options when it comes to Belarus. He doesn’t want a democratic movement on his doorstep, but has been loath to support a fickle ally and is wary of alienating a population broadly well-disposed towards Russia. Still, last week, the risk of inaction appeared to have become too great. In a televised interview on Thursday, Putin was unambiguous. With a cursory nod to the will of the Belarusian people, he made clear Russia could not be indifferent to the fate of its “closest” neighbor, and would step in if required. Lukashenko, he hinted, had made enough concessions.
This was not just a threat. It was a signal of support for the security apparatus on which the entire Lukashenko edifice is built — and should be read as such. That doesn’t mean military intervention is impossible, but this is not Ukraine. In Belarus, Russia is propping up an unpopular autocrat, and Moscow doesn’t need tanks for that. Indeed, it has already sent in journalists to keep state television going, and left its fingerprints on a government narrative that increasingly talks up a non-existent outside menace.